Jaguars vs. Bengals: The best player prop bets for TNF

Profile Picture: Ashley Anderson

September 29th, 2021

The two most recent No. 1 overall draft picks, Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow, will square off on Thursday Night Football, when the Jacksonville Jaguars visit the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium at 8:20 p.m. ET.

Fri, October 1 2021, 12:20 AM

CIN Bengals






O 46

JAX Jaguars






U 46

Burrow and his Cincinnati Bengals are off to a 2-1 start and currently share the lead in the AFC North. 

Jacksonville, in its first year under head coach Urban Meyer, has yet to record a win this season and will enter Thursday's matchup riding an 18-game losing streak, dating back to September 2020.

The Jaguars suffered a 31-19 defeat to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 3 and failed to cover the spread in their third straight game. Lawrence was picked off three times in the contest and ranks first in the league in interceptions, with seven.

Cincinnati got the job done against division rival Pittsburgh in a 24-10 road win, while Burrow threw three touchdown passes, two of which were caught by former LSU teammate Ja'Marr Chase.

Let's further examine Week 4's Thursday Night Football matchup between the Jaguars and Bengals, as we look at the three best player props to bet.

Joe Burrow: Over/Under 1.5 total touchdown passes

Burrow has looked sharp in his return from his season-ending knee injury from his rookie year.

Through three games, the former Heisman Trophy winner has completed 70.7% of his passes for 640 yards and seven scores, and is averaging 8.5 yards per pass attempt (ninth best in the league).

On the down side, the Bengals' offensive line is still an issue and has allowed five sacks apiece in two of the team's first three games.

Burrow has also thrown four interceptions, three of which occurred on consecutive drives in a 20-17 loss to the Chicago Bears.

He should enjoy a much smoother outing against Jacksonville's defense, which ranks second to last in sacks, fifth to last in passing yards allowed (302.3), and gives up 1.3 opponent passing touchdowns per contest.

Burrow has recorded at least two touchdown passes in each week of the 2021 season and has faced better defenses than Jacksonville's.

Look for him to add to his touchdown tally on Thursday, with at least two more scores through the air.

Pick: Over 1.5 total touchdown passes

Ja'Marr Chase: Over/Under 64.5 receiving yards

Part of Burrow's early-season success can be attributed to the addition of rookie receiver Ja'Marr Chase.

Together at LSU, Burrow and Chase won a national championship in 2019, the same year Burrow shattered a number of NCAA records and Chase finished with a team-leading 1,780 yards and 20 touchdowns on 84 catches.

In Cincinnati, the duo's connection remains strong.

Chase ranks first on the team in receiving yards (220), touchdowns (four), and yards per catch (20).

In Sunday's win, he also became the youngest player in NFL history to record four receiving touchdowns in his team's first three games and is the only player in the Super Bowl era to reel in a 30-yard touchdown reception in each of his first three career games.

The Jaguars defense has let at least one opposing receiver catch for 100 yards in each of the first three games of the season.

Against Arizona, former Bengal A.J. Green and Christian Kirk both racked up more than 100 yards on a combined 12 receptions. The Cardinals wideouts also each had catches of more than 30 yards.

A deep threat like Chase will feast on Jacksonville's defense and hit the Over on 64.5 receiving yards — something he has done in two of three games so far.

Pick: Over 64.5 receiving yards

James Robinson: Over/Under 52.5 rushing yards

As for Jacksonville's offense, the unit should struggle against the Bengals' defense, which ranks in the top 10 in total yards (317), rushing yards (78.3), and points surrendered (18). 

Running back James Robinson had a big outing for the Jaguars in their Week 3 loss, as he ran for a season-high 88 yards and a touchdown, but he'll come back down to earth on Thursday.

In games against Houston and Denver, Robinson ran for 25 and 47 yards, respectively.

Cincinnati held star running back Dalvin Cook to just 61 yards on 20 carries in the Bengals' Week 1 overtime win against Minnesota. Bears lead running back David Montgomery posted the same exact stat line against Cincy in Week 2, and Steelers rookie Najee Harris managed just 40 yards on 14 carries in Week 3. 

Robinson should have just as rough an outing against the Bengals' front seven, and will fail to top 50 rushing yards for the third time this season.

Pick: Under 52.5 rushing yards