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Jets vs. Broncos: NFL Week 3 betting odds, preview, and pick

Profile Picture: Dan Halverson

September 21st, 2021

The undefeated Denver Broncos will finally get to enjoy their home opener this Sunday when they host the winless New York Jets. Let’s take a closer look at this matchup beginning with the latest betting odds.

Sun, September 26 2021, 8:05 PM

DEN Broncos

Moneyline

-625

Spread

-11

Total

O 41.5

NY Jets

Moneyline

+440

Spread

+11

Total

U 41.5

Teddy Bridgewater has thrived against the spread

In one of the most impressive statistics in all of football these days, Broncos starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is 37-13-1 against the spread. He has been doubted his entire career and continues to outperform expectations.

In a unique analytical statistic put together by Ben Baldwin of The Athletic, a combination of EPA (Expected Points Added) + CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expectation) has Bridgewater second in the NFL behind only Patrick Mahomes. In other words, he adds value and makes throws that most of the league’s quarterbacks either can’t, or aren’t, making.

Bridgewater plays smartly and efficiently, completing passes at a 77% rate behind only Baker Mayfield’s 81%. He has four touchdowns and zero interceptions, and while his per pass average is relatively low in comparison to other elite quarterbacks, he rarely makes bad decisions.

Bridgewater’s play is reminiscent of Drew Brees in his prime, a player that Bridgewater had the opportunity to learn from as a backup for two years in New Orleans. Courtland Sutton has become a preferred target as a big-bodied 6’4” option, and Bridgewater looks poised to only get better as he continues to gel with his receivers, learn the offense, and look forward to the return of highly talented receiver Jerry Jeudy around Week 6.

Jets vs. Broncos Injury Report

New York JetsDenver Broncos
S Lamarcus Joyner: Out (triceps)
DE Bradley Chubb: Questionable (ankle)
OT Mekhi Becton: Out (knee)
LB Josey Jewell: Out (pectoral)
WR Jamison Crowder: Questionable: (groin)
WR Jerry Jeudy: Out (ankle)
LB Jarrad Davis: Out (ankle)
G Graham Glasgow: Out (shoulder)

Jets and Broncos Betting Trends

  • The Broncos are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 matchups
  • The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five matchups
  • The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as favorites
  • The Jets have only covered 19 of their last 64 games as road underdogs
  • The Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these teams

Broncos will Dominate on Sunday

The Denver Broncos have gone 2-0 against the spread this season by playing sound defense and having elite quarterback play. The Jets are trying to break in rookie quarterback Zach Wilson, who has confidence despite throwing five interceptions through his first two weeks.

The Broncos have more injuries than any team would like, but this Jets offense has no elite weapons for Wilson to turn to, and the recent injury to offensive tackle Mekhi Becton doesn’t help Wilson’s chances of making something out of nothing.

The Broncos should be excited to get an opportunity to pounce on a weak opponent and prolong a perhaps short-lived lead in the division by getting to 3-0. The Broncos are not a team that has laid double digit points in recent years, but they are getting their best quarterback play since Peyton Manning and their offseason defensive acquisitions are paying off.

Ride the Broncos and the Bridgewater trend.

Score prediction: Broncos 30, Jets 16

NFL Week 3 pick: Broncos -11

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