Jets vs. Colts: The best Mike White player prop bets for TNF
Mike White shocked the NFL world last week when he threw for a league-leading 405 passing yards in an upset win over the Cincinnati Bengals. It was enough for him to earn AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors.
He will get his second career start on Thursday night against the Indianapolis Colts.
Fri, November 5 2021, 12:20 AM
We've examined the matchup closely and have the three best player prop bets for White below.
Over/Under 1.5 passing touchdowns
There is obviously not a big sample size to go off of here with White, but he did pass for three touchdowns last week against one of the top scoring defenses in the league.
Now he gets an Indianapolis defense that has allowed 19 passing touchdowns this season, which ranks second worst in the NFL.
In eight games this season, the Colts have allowed six quarterbacks to throw for two or more touchdowns. Only Davis Mills and Jimmy Garoppolo failed to hit that mark.
On the rushing side, the Colts are the best at keeping teams out of the end zone. They have only allowed two rushing touchdowns all year long.
While I do believe this will be a low-scoring game, I would be surprised if the Jets did not score at least two team touchdowns. The likelihood is that all of their team touchdowns will need to come through the air.
Over/Under 36.5 pass attempts
How about this number for the second-time starter in the NFL? It is somewhat understandable, given that he attempted a massive 45 pass attempts last week and attempted 32 passes in relief of Zach Wilson the previous week, despite only playing 72% of the snaps.
Michael Carter and Ty Johnson targets per route run w/ Zach Wilson vs Mike White— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) November 3, 2021
◽️ Carter (2.8 🎯/gm ) - 25.9%
◽️ Johnson (2.6 🎯/gm) - 20.3%
◽️ Carter (11.5 🎯/gm) - 46.9%
◽️ Johnson (6.5 🎯/gm) - 54.2%
White has targeted RBs on 45.3% of his pass attempts 👀
The Colts only allow 32.1 pass attempts per game, which ranks seventh in the league. Only Lamar Jackson and Mills threw for 37 or more pass attempts against the Colts this season. Both of those games involved the Colts jumping out to a big lead in a high-scoring game.
Since Week 3, when the run of Thursday night Unders began, only Tom Brady has thrown for more than 37 pass attempts.
I think this game will also be low scoring, and the Jets will not get the chance for White to attempt this many passes.
Over/Under 255.5 Passing Yards
White is averaging 6.6 yards per attempt in his short career. The Colts defense is allowing 7.1 passing yards per attempt. If we split the difference here and assume that White averages 6.9 passing yards per attempt, then he would need 37 pass attempts to hit this number.
Since I like White to have Under 36.5 pass attempts, he will also go Under on passing yards. The Colts only allow 243.6 passing yards per game.
Combine all of this with my love for point total Unders on Thursday nights, and this leads me to an easy Under bet here.