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Lamar Jackson favored to lead NFL in playoff rushing yards

Profile Picture: Robert Criscola

January 16th, 2021

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is the +175 favorite to lead the NFL in rushing yards from the divisional round on. But is he the best available bet in this market, or is there someone else that appeals more? Here’s our analysis.

Favorites for most playoff rushing yards

NameOdds
Lamar Jackson
+175
Cam Akers
+350
Alvin Kamara
+400
Aaron Jones
+750
Nick Chubb
+1200

Jackson seems like a bad bet

Jackson’s ability to tuck and run, and the fact that the Ravens occasionally call designed runs for him, isn’t being called into question. In fact, his 136 yards rushing against the Tennessee Titans in the Wild Card round was quite impressive.

However, Baltimore does not have an easy road to the Super Bowl. Beating the Bills in Buffalo this weekend is no sure thing. And a potential date with the Kansas City Chiefs, whom Jackson is 0-3 against, does not inspire confidence.

In short, betting on a quarterback who might get eliminated this weekend to lead the NFL in rushing as the favorite doesn’t seem wise.

Alvin Kamara appeals more

The New Orleans Saints’ Alvin Kamara (+400) is the running back most likely to both accumulate yards and survive and advance to Super Bowl LV.

After rushing for 155 yards and six touchdowns against the Minnesota Vikings on Christmas Day, Kamara recorded 99 yards and a score on the ground against the Chicago Bears in the Wild Card round.

The Saints face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ tenacious No. 1 rushing defense this week. But assuming they advance, Kamara should make light work of the Green Bay Packers’ defense (assuming they handle business against the banged-up Los Angeles Rams).

Aaron Jones a live longshot

Packers tailback Aaron Jones (+750) looks like a live longshot or a decent hedge play, depending on perspective.

Jones was fourth among running backs in rushing yards this season (1,104) and third in yards per carry (5.5). Though the Rams and Saints (or Bucs) do not pose easy matchups on the ground, Jones is one of those running backs that could be considered “matchup-proof.”

The Packers are a decent bet to make it to the big game, and if they do, Jones should be a key contributor.


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