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Lions vs. Browns: NFL Week 11 betting odds, preview, and pick

Profile Picture: Dan Halverson

November 16th, 2021

The Cleveland Browns have not finished a season with a winning point differential since 2007.

Now minus-10 for the 2021 season and in last place in the AFC North after a blowout loss to the Patriots in Week 10, major work is left to be done to salvage this season.

Up next is the only winless team left in the NFL: the Detroit Lions. Let’s take a look at the matchup and predict if the Browns can get things back on track.

Sun, November 21 2021, 6:00 PM

CLE Browns

Moneyline

-480

Spread

-9.5

Total

O 45

DET Lions

Moneyline

+350

Spread

+9.5

Total

U 45

The line for the game is Cleveland -9.5, with a total of 45 points.

The Browns are 5-5 straight up on the season and 5-5 against the spread, while Detroit is 0-8-1 straight up and 5-4 ATS.

The Lions are coming off a tie against the Pittsburgh Steelers, while the Browns are trading wins and losses over their last five games.

Browns struggle offensively

The Browns entered 2021 with the top-rated offensive line in the league and have recently signed two of their stars to big contracts.

Despite the power and skill the Browns possess up front, the offense has struggled, relative to expectations.

What was supposed to be a strong power running game to open up a passing attack with plenty of big-name receivers has not materialized consistently.

Cleveland is still ninth in the league in yards per play, but after averaging 28.4 points per game through their first five games, the Browns are averaging just 17.8 in their last five.

Baker Mayfield has been hurt, Odell Beckham Jr. has been traded away, Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb have faced injury and illness, and the offensive line two-deep isn’t 100%.

Combined with generally ineffective play from Mayfield, the Browns’ potentially overpowering offense looks off. 

Lions vs. Browns injury report

Detroit LionsCleveland Browns
QB Jared Goff: Questionable (oblique)
CB AJ Green: Questionable (concussion)
LB Trey Flowers: Questionable (knee)
QB Baker Mayfield: Questionable (knee)
OT Matt Nelson: Questionable (ankle)
CB Troy Hill: Questionable (neck)
RB Jamaal Williams: Out (thigh)
RB Kareem Hunt: Questionable (calf)

Lions and Browns betting trends

  • The Browns are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games
  • The Browns are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games in November
  • The Under is 4-0 in the Lions’ last four road games
  • The Under is 6-1 in the Lions’ last seven games
  • The Under is 4-1 in the Browns’ last five games as a favorite

Lions still fighting

When looking at the talent disparity on these two rosters, the line could easily be greater than 9.5 points. The Browns entered the season with one of the deeper rosters in the NFL, but injuries and poor play have caused them to lose the momentum they built in 2020.

With the Lions, things are bleak. They have yet to win a game and are bound for last place.

That said, they are still fighting for their impassioned head coach. This couldn’t have been more evident than in their tie last week, when after missing a potential game-winning field goal, the defense held up enough to force a late turnover and prevent the loss.

Missing that kick could have been a demoralizing moment for a team that is used to losing, but the Lions responded with effort and held on to break their losing streak.

The Lions have very little to play for, except each other, but they played too hard last week to lay near-double digits against them.

Score prediction: Cleveland 23, Detroit 17

NFL Week 11 pick: Lions +9.5

Lions vs. Browns Pick powered by The Quant Edge

Our predictive engine is calling for the Lions to cover the spread and for the score to go Over the projected total.


 

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