Looking for value in NFL futures markets

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Dan Halverson

June 5th, 2019

In just 13 weeks, the 2019 NFL regular season kicks off. In less time than that, the preseason gets underway. And in less time than that, Sportscenter will begin showing sideline videos of Cowboys receivers getting into fights with cornerbacks at practice.

Before we bet way more than we care to admit on the Hall of Fame Game, let’s look at some futures prices at BetAmerica to determine which plays can give us both value and create some excitement over the course of the season.

Futures Favorites

When taking a look at any futures market, keep in mind that preconceived notions about particular teams can greatly impact the corresponding price. The Yankees, Lakers, Manchester United, and Tiger Woods are all consistently overrated due to a belief among public bettors that these teams or players are “the best." As a result, a lot of people like to bet on them. These feelings deflate the odds relative to the actual probability of a positive outcome for the corresponding team.

Favorites in the National Football League

In the NFL, those two teams are the Pittsburgh Steelers (+2000) and New England Patriots (+700). The Patriots have been an interesting 10-year case study in pissing off bookmakers, but I’m fairly confident their run is over. Rob Gronkowski may have been frequently injured in the latter part of his career, but he was the ultimate safety valve and arguably the top tight end in league history when he was healthy. In the Steelers' case, as dramatic as Antonio Brown may be, he was still elite. The loss of both of these players will be felt by both teams, who are destined to accumulate bets regardless of roster composition.

Taking Advantage of Favorites, Value and Public Perception

On the other hand, two teams that are sure to offer value because of public perception are the Minnesota Vikings (+2500) and Atlanta Falcons (+3000). These two teams were 10-1 and 16-1, respectively, to win the Super Bowl last year. They underperformed but come into this season with just as good of rosters as they did a year ago. If you’re looking for a price on teams that are built to compete now, these are your horses. Best of luck and happy price hunting!

An Early Look at NFL Teams

Los Angeles Rams Football

Kansas City Chiefs Football

BetAmerica NFL Future Markets are available NOW on our BetAmerica Sportsbook!