Mahomes favored to lead all QBs in passing yards in NFL Playoffs

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January 19th, 2022

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the odds-on favorite to lead all quarterbacks in passing yards in the 2022 NFL Playoffs, according to TwinSpires Sports.

In last Sunday's Wild Card Round matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Mahomes (-118) piled up 404 passing yards against the league's ninth best passing defense and will confront the No. 1 ranked pass defense when he clashes with the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round.

Bills quarterback Josh Allen is coming off a stellar performance in his Wild Card matchup with the New England Patriots as well. The fourth-year QB recorded five touchdown passes and went 21-of-25 passing for 308 yards to finish with the third most passing yards through the first round of the postseason.

Derek Carr, whose Las Vegas Raiders were eliminated by the No. 4 seed Cincinnati Bengals on Saturday, threw for 310 yards, the second most yards on the weekend, behind Mahomes.

Allen could spoil Mahomes' playoff push

Mahomes' Chiefs are a slight favorite to beat the Bills at Arrowhead on Sunday, and if the 2018 league MVP can pull off a win, his path to Super Bowl LVI should be smooth sailing. Kansas City and Buffalo are the top two choices to come out of the AFC and compete in the big game, set for Feb. 13 at SoFi Stadium.

Sun, January 23 2022, 11:30 PM

KC Chiefs






O 54.5

BUF Bills






U 54.5

Buffalo already defeated Kansas City 38-20 on the road in Week 5, and will carry a ton of momentum into this rematch of last year's AFC Championship Game, which the Chiefs won 38-24.

Allen (+220) is another intriguing bet to finish with the most passing yards in the playoffs. He averaged 259.2 passing yards per game during the 2021 regular season, compared to Mahomes' 284.6, and posted 315 yards in Week 5 against Kansas City's 27th-ranked pass defense.

Whether Allen or Mahomes comes out on top in Sunday's showdown, the victor will get the benefit of facing a bottom 10 pass defense in the AFC Championship Game. Tennessee and Cincinnati, who square off in the other AFC Divisional Round contest, both ranked in the bottom 10 against the pass in the regular season.

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow averaged 288.2 yards per game in 2021 (third in the league), but he is projected to fall to Ryan Tannehill and the Titans on Saturday.

Tannehill averaged 219.6 passing yards per game and will take a back seat to the Titans' rushing attack, which includes a newly healthy Derrick Henry.

Brady top contender in NFC

In the NFC, Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady led his conference in passing yards in the opening round of the playoffs with a 271-yard outing against the Philadelphia Eagles' 11th-ranked pass defense.

In 2021, Brady, at age 44, topped the league in passing yards (5,316), touchdown passes (43), completions (485), and attempts (719).

He will confront Matthew Stafford (+1000) on Sunday in the Divisional Round and will face one of the NFL's best pass rushes.

Sun, January 23 2022, 8:00 PM

TB Buccaneers






O 48.5

LA Rams






U 48.5

Stafford threw for just 202 yards in the Rams' 34-11 beatdown of the Arizona Cardinals on Monday night and will go up against a Buccaneers unit that surrendered 258 yards to Jalen Hurts, who did most of his damage after Tampa Bay had built a huge lead.

When Brady and Stafford went head to head in Week 3 during the regular season, Stafford accounted for 343 passing yards, while Brady put up 432.

While both of these QBs could pad their playoff passing total in the second round, the winner of Brady vs. Stafford will get either the No. 6 seed San Francisco 49ers or the top-seeded Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game. Both of those teams boast top-10 pass defenses, so Brady or Stafford will have their work cut out for them in the conference championship tilt.

The Packers are a +350 favorite to win Super Bowl LVI, and quarterback Aaron Rodgers is the frontrunner to win Super Bowl MVP.

His team sat out on bye in the first round, so Rodgers is at a disadvantage to finish with more passing yards than his peers. With several elite defenses remaining in the NFC, he's unlikely to beat out a player in the AFC, like Mahomes, who got his first playoff start in the opening round.

If you think the Packers will reach the Super Bowl, your best bet is to look to a quarterback in the AFC to finish as the playoff passing leader. That player will come out of the battle between the Chiefs and Bills, so turn your attention to Mahomes, or back Allen at plus odds, if you expect another dominant Buffalo performance in this weekend's Divisional Round.