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Mahomes odds-on favorite to win Super Bowl LV MVP honors

Profile Picture: Robert Criscola

February 6th, 2021

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (-106) is the betting favorite to become the first player since legendary Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Terry Bradshaw (1977 and 1978 seasons) to repeat as Super Bowl MVP on Sunday night. But is he the best available bet on the board?

Let’s dive into some historical trends, as well as the cases for some of his rivals, as we make our selection for Super Bowl LV MVP.

Super Bowl LV MVP Odds

PlayerOdds
Patrick Mahomes
-106
Tom Brady
+190
Tyreek Hill
+1200
Travis Kelce
+1300
Leonard Fournette
+2500

Quarterbacks, offensive players have dominated the award

Not surprisingly, quarterbacks have won 30 of the 54 Super Bowl MVP Awards to date, including eight of the last 11 such honors. Mahomes has one of those wins, and opposite number Tom Brady on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers has two.

Brady has four Super Bowl MVPs in all over his decorated career, hence his being a clear second-choice in this market at +190.

Even when a quarterback doesn’t win MVP honors, it’s still been an uphill battle for defensive players in this field. Non-offensive players have earned this award only 10 times in 54 tries.

If you had to pick one longshot…

For the reasons we mentioned above, there are plenty of big prices available on defenders for Super Bowl LV MVP. The best bet of the bunch might be Tampa Bay Buccaneers corner back Sean Murphy-Bunting at +20000.

Murphy-Bunting has an interception in three straight postseason games. Adding another one and possibly taking it to the end zone at the right time might be all that he needs, depending on the game situation. Stranger things have happened.  

This pick defies the trends

No tight end in the history of the NFL has ever won Super Bowl MVP. But there’s never been an NFL tight end quite like the Chiefs’ Travis Kelce (+1300).

Kelce had a quiet game by his standards when his team beat the Bucs 27-24 at the site of Super Bowl LV – Raymond James Stadium – in Week 12, recording eight catches for 82 yards while being held out of the end zone.

But Kelce has gone on a tear since then, averaging 8.7 catches and 110.8 yards over a six-game span. He also has an incredible seven touchdowns in that stretch.

Kelce could very well make history in Super Bowl LV, and underdog bettors have a chance to cash in at a nice price.

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