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Mahomes offers excellent value in NFL MVP race

Profile Picture: Andrew Champagne

October 13th, 2021

We’re five games into the 2021 National Football League season, and races for several individual awards are beginning to heat up. We’ve got a full slate of MVP futures available right now, and that field is topped by current +350 favorite Josh Allen, with Kyler Murray in hot pursuit at +400.

MVP 2021/2022

Sat, February 12 2022, 10:00 PM

Allen, Josh

+350

Murray, Kyler

+400

Herbert, Justin

+650

Brady, Tom

+700

Prescott, Dak

+700

Rodgers, Aaron

+1000

Stafford, Matthew

+1200

Jackson, Lamar

+1300

Mahomes, Patrick

+1600

Henry, Derrick

+5000

This makes sense. Allen and Murray quarterback the league’s two hottest teams at the moment, and their dual-threat styles make them plenty of fun to watch. However, there’s a significant value play a bit further down the list that has my attention.

Mahomes is a distant ninth on the NFL MVP odds board

The Kansas City Chiefs have gotten off to a slow start. At 2-3, they’re the cellar-dwellers in the AFC West, and quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who won the MVP award in 2018, sits at +1600 to win the award again. He’s currently the ninth choice in the betting, behind Lamar Jackson and ahead of +5000 tenth choice Derrick Henry.

My argument for him is very simple: He’s Patrick Freaking Mahomes.

Mahomes leads the league in TD passes

Are we just forgetting how good this guy is? I feel like most of us are, and that seems like a pretty big mistake. Consider this: Even with the Chiefs below .500, Mahomes leads the NFL with 16 touchdown passes through five games. He’s completing nearly 70% of his passes, he’s averaging nearly 300 yards per game, and he’s also proven more than adept at gaining yards with his legs.

By comparison, Josh Allen has fewer passing yards, and Murray isn’t far ahead of him. If we’re going by stats and a player’s potential, is betting against Patrick Mahomes the smart thing to do? I don’t think so.

KC's upcoming schedule is soft

Furthermore, the upcoming schedule provides opportunities for the Chiefs to right the ship after a challenging early-season slate that saw them lose to three playoff-caliber teams. They go to Washington this week before a challenging road gave against the Titans and a home game versus the Giants that should not be a challenge.

If the Chiefs find their rhythm, they’ll go from 2-3 to 5-3 very quickly. In that case, I assume the +1600 price on Mahomes will plummet, as he’ll likely have a "statement game" or two during that stretch. I think those odds provide a very intriguing "buy low" opportunity on a proven commodity, and if you’re looking for value, this is where I’d point you.

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