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Patriots vs. Falcons: The best Mac Jones player prop bets for TNF

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November 17th, 2021

Two wildly differing defenses line up on opposite sides of the field for TNF as the New England Patriots travel to Atlanta to face the Falcons. The Patriots have been stingy all season, allowing just 17.7 points per game (second in the NFL), while the Falcons have been surrendering 29.2 points per game (31st in the NFL).

The Falcons are 4-5 this year, but are 0-3 straight-up at home, while the Patriots arrive on a short week, but are 4-0 on the road and are coming off a dominant display in which they hammered the Cleveland Browns 45-7.

Fri, November 19 2021, 1:20 AM

ATL Falcons

Moneyline

+220

Spread

+6.5

Total

O 47.5

NE Patriots

Moneyline

-278

Spread

-6.5

Total

U 47.5

Rookie QB Mac Jones had one of the strongest performances of his young career in that game, completing 19 of his 23 passes for 198 yards and three touchdowns. Here are the three best prop bets as he tries to keep that mojo going in the Mercedes Benz Stadium.

Over/Under 253.5 Passing Yards

Jones has thrown for more than 250 yards just once in the last six games, and that was in the huge 54-13 win over the hapless New York Jets, where he threw for 307 yards and two TDs. The Patriots' signal caller is averaging 233 yards per game through his rookie campaign, and is handcuffed by the fact that Bill Belichick favors a run-heavy offense.

The Falcons are ranked 16th against the pass, giving up 246.2 yards per game, although they certainly seem to have more joy at home, despite being 0-4 straight-up. In the four games in Atlanta, the Falcons have given up an average of just 211.5 passing yards a game – with Sam Darnold of the Panthers held to 129 yards and Zach Wilson of the Jets to 192.

Patriots’ fans will likely be appalled at having their first-round draft pick compared with Darnold and Wilson, but the three are similar in the season-long stats:

Quarterback Comparison vs. Atlanta Falcons

QB
Up ArrowDown Arrow
Attempts Per Game
Up ArrowDown Arrow
Yards Per Game
Up ArrowDown Arrow
Yards Per Attempt
Up ArrowDown Arrow
Sam Darnold
34.0 (15th)
220.7 (26th)
6.5 (28th)
Mac Jones
32.3 (19th)
233.3 (21st)
7.2 (17th)
Zach Wison
30.2 (24th)
194.7 (28th)
6.5 (28th)

Rhamondre Stevenson stepped up in Damien Harris’ absence last week to rack up 100 yards on 20 rushes, and either man could do the same again on Thursday. The Falcons rank 21st against the run, and give up an average of 122 yards per game. That, combined with a likely positive game script, means the opportunities for Jones to rack up yards through the air may be limited again.

Pick: Under 253.5 Passing Yards (-114)


Over/Under 23.5 Pass Completions

In his last six games Jones has thrown more than 23 pass completions just once – and that was for 24 in that aforementioned demolition of the Jets. The rookie’s completion rate is extremely good – finding the mark with 69.2% of his passes, which ranks fourth in the NFL behind Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, and Teddy Bridgewater – but Jones simply doesn’t throw enough to give you ample confidence in this bet.

Jones' average of 32.3 pass attempts per game ranks him 19th among QBs in the NFL with at least six games under their belt this year, and he may not even reach that mark against the Falcons.

Teams have averaged 29.2 rushing attempts per game against Atlanta, the fifth most of any team in the league. Partly because of their weak run defense, but also because of game script. The Falcons’ five loses this season have been by an average of 20 points per game, and when teams start getting ahead of them early, game management comes into play.

That’s a real possibility here, so it’s wise to go Under again as the Patriots control the clock.

Pick: Under 23.5 Pass Completions (-117)


Over/Under 1.5 Touchdown Passes

While the Patriots have a run-first offense, Jones has managed to throw multiple touchdowns in four of his last seven games, and now rolls into Atlanta off his three-TD game at home to the Browns. Only two teams have given up more passing touchdowns than Atlanta this year, with the Falcons giving up multiple TD passes in six of their nine games this season.

Last week against the Falcons, Dak Prescott managed to throw a couple of TD passes as Dallas added four more on the ground. They are a soft matchup, and Jones should get plenty more opportunity to pick out his man in the end zone.

His rapport with tight end Hunter Henry is electric, and they’ve connected for seven TDs already this season. The floodgates could also open for Jakobi Meyers, who finally hauled in his first career touchdown reception last week against the Browns. He now gets to face the Falcons, who have given up 13 touchdowns to wide receivers this season, the second most in the league.

Pick: Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-125)

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