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NFL Betting Trends: Aaron Rodgers is Money at Home

Profile Picture: Jeremy Jones

December 29th, 2021

As we enter the final two weeks of the NFL season, there are plenty of juicy trends and eye-catching analytics available to make smart wagering decisions.

Let's break down the latest metrics from around the NFL and determine the trends you should take advantage of in Week 17 and beyond.

Road underdogs after a loss

This trend has been a little inconsistent since the many COVID-related absences of important players, but it is still worth considering when picking your games.

Since the start of the 2019 season, road underdogs are 128-98-6 against the spread after a loss. In 2021, road underdogs after a loss have a 40-34-1 ATS record.

In Week 17, there are seven games that fit this mold: the New York Giants at Chicago, Jacksonville at New England, Denver at the Los Angeles Chargers, Arizona at Dallas, Carolina at New Orleans, Detroit at Seattle, and Minnesota at Green Bay.

This category is a moneymaker, and there are few long-term trends you can say that about.

Which AFC team is most likely to make the playoffs?

Total Tides Turning

Through 16 weeks, the Under is 131-108 overall, and 127-94 in non-overtime games.

In Thursday night games, the Under is 11-5. In Sunday night games, the Over is 10-6. In Monday night games, the Under is 9-7. That means non-overtime, Sunday afternoon games are 95-79-1 in favor of the Under.

However, the tides have turned in these categories over the past month. In Thursday night games, the Under is 3-2 over the past five weeks. In Sunday night games, the Over is 2-3. In Monday night games, the Under is 4-1. Non-overtime Sunday afternoon games are 21-31 for the Under.

Road underdogs have been mediocre the past few weeks but are still 79-61-2 ATS through 16 weeks, so the previous trend also comes into effect here.

NFL is a week-to-week league

As we discussed in last week’s column, there is an intriguing trend this season that is hitting at an astounding rate. After going 54-30-1 ATS in the first 15 weeks of the season, teams that did not cover the week prior went 2-6 ATS against teams that did cover the prior week in Week 16.

That puts this trend at 56-36-1 ATS on the season, which is still a 61% hit rate. You cannot get much better than that in the NFL betting world for a trend with this large of a sample size.

In Week 17, there are eight games that fit this mold: the New York Giants at Chicago, Atlanta at Buffalo, Washington at home against Philadelphia, Baltimore at home against the Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco at home to Houston, Arizona at Dallas, Seattle at home to Detroit, and Pittsburgh at home to Cleveland.

Tale of two Kliffs

Arizona Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury has been dreadful over his career as a favorite, and specifically a home favorite. He is 4-10 ATS in those spots. However, in the opposite scenario of being a road underdog, Kingsbury is an astounding 12-3-2 ATS! That is quite the turnaround.

Sun, January 2 2022, 9:25 PM

DAL Cowboys

Moneyline

-230

Spread

-5.5

Total

O 52

ARI Cardinals

Moneyline

+185

Spread

+5.5

Total

U 52

The Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Dallas Cowboys, and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games in Week 17. The Cowboys are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with a winning record and have failed to cover in six consecutive January games.

Rodgers is money at home

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has an incredible home record against the spread in his career, as he is 68-37-4 ATS in all games in Lambeau Field. He is 49-28 ATS against NFC North opponents and 25-12 ATS when those division games are at home.

Mon, January 3 2022, 1:20 AM

GB Packers

Moneyline

-286

Spread

-6.5

Total

O 47.5

MIN Vikings

Moneyline

+210

Spread

+6.5

Total

U 47.5

The Vikings are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games against NFC opponents and are 1-4 ATS in their last five games in the month of January. The Packers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games against NFC opponents and 5-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with a losing record.

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