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NFL Betting Trends: Aaron Rodgers owns the Chicago Bears

Profile Picture: Jeremy Jones

October 12th, 2021

After over a quarter of the NFL season, there are plenty of juicy trends and eye-catching analytics available to make smart wagering decisions.

Let's break down the latest metrics from around the NFL and determine the trends you should take advantage of in Week 6 and beyond.

Road underdogs after a loss

We talked about this trend in last week’s column and it has continued this season. Road underdogs after a loss have a 15-10 record against the spread in 2021. Since the start of the 2019 season, road underdogs are 103-74-5 ATS after a loss.

In Week 6, there are three games that fit this mold — Houston at Indianapolis, Las Vegas at Denver, and Seattle at Pittsburgh. This trend continues to be a moneymaker if you play every game blindly, and there are very few long term trends you can say that about.

Which team are you taking to win the NFC West at their current odds?

The Under and underdogs still rolling

Through five weeks of the season, the Under is 43-37 overall and 42-30 in non-overtime games. In primetime games, the Under is 5-10 and only two of those games went to overtime. That means all non-overtime, Sunday-afternoon games are 37-22 in favor of the Under.

After a 12-4 ATS start for underdogs in Week 1, they went 9-7 ATS in Weeks 2 and 3 and 7-9 ATS in Weeks 4 and 5. Road underdogs are 30-20 ATS through five weeks, so the previous trend also comes into effect here.

A-A-Ron owns Chicago

Since taking over the starting quarterback job in Green Bay in 2008, Aaron Rodgers is an incredible 21-5 straight-up against the Chicago Bears. In those 26 games, the Packers are 19-7 ATS against the Bears.

Sun, October 17 2021, 5:00 PM

CHI Bears

Moneyline

+163

Spread

+4.5

Total

O 45

GB Packers

Moneyline

-200

Spread

-4.5

Total

U 45

The overall trends in this matchup are even worse for the Bears. They are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall with Green Bay, and 5-18 ATS in their last 23 meetings at home. The Packers have been on fire against the spread recently as they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall. Rodgers will be looking forward to possibly his final game in Chicago as a Packer, so this Week 6 game "bears" watching.

Thursday Night Unders?

We mentioned how the primetime games have leaned heavily towards the Over, but the Thursday night game has a different story. The Under is 3-2 this year with three straight hits after an 0-2 start. This is the time of the year where teams start to feel the effects of a short turnaround from a Sunday game to a Thursday game, and since there have been no byes, both teams are on equal short turnarounds.

Fri, October 15 2021, 12:20 AM

PHI Eagles

Moneyline

+225

Spread

+7

Total

O 52.5

TB Buccaneers

Moneyline

-286

Spread

-7

Total

U 52.5

In Thursday night football history, games that open with a total of 53 or higher have a record of 13-4 in favor of the Under. That is a 76.5% hit rate! This week, the total opened at 53.5, just like last week when the game went well Under. Another nice added trend to this game is that the Under is 13-4 in the past 17 home games for Philadelphia.

Dallas is a covering machine

One pleasant surprise to the start of this season has been the success of the Dallas Cowboys. They are 4-1 straight up and 5-0 ATS. They have covered eight of their last nine games going back to last season and they only seem to be getting better even as their spreads get bigger.

Sun, October 17 2021, 8:25 PM

NE Patriots

Moneyline

+160

Spread

+4

Total

O 51

DAL Cowboys

Moneyline

-195

Spread

-4

Total

U 51

As they travel to New England this week, they have another trend in their favor. The road team is on a four game covering streak in this matchup. The Patriots are surprisingly bad against the spread following a straight-up win in recent games. They are 2-10-1 ATS in their past 13 games in such situations.

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