NFL Betting Trends: Ben Roethlisberger loves Ohio
Now that we're past the halfway mark of the NFL season, there are plenty of juicy trends and eye-catching analytics available to make smart wagering decisions.
Let's break down the latest metrics from around the NFL, and determine the trends you should take advantage of in Week 12 and beyond.
Road underdogs after a loss
This trend has been red hot going 11-2 ATS over the past three weeks. If you count the two teams that were road underdogs after a tie, then you're looking at 13-2 ATS!
On Thanksgiving Thursday, the Las Vegas Raiders won outright as road underdogs following a loss.
Since the start of the 2019 season, road underdogs are 119-85-5 ATS after a loss. In 2021, road underdogs after a loss have a 31-21 ATS record.
In Week 12, there are four games that fit this mold — Tennessee at New England, New York Jets at Houston, Pittsburgh at Cincinnati, and Seattle at Washington. Also, keep an eye on the spreads for the Falcons, Panthers, and Rams as they are close enough to move to underdogs.
This category is a moneymaker, and there are very few long-term trends you can say that about.
Who will win the Super Bowl?
Sunday Unders still rolling
Through 11 weeks (plus three games), the Under is 95-72 overall, and 91-60 in non-overtime games.
In Thursday night games, the Under is 9-3. In Sunday night games, the Over is 8-3. In Monday night games, the Over is 6-5. That means non-overtime, Sunday afternoon games are 74-48-1 in favor of the Under.
Road underdogs keep improving from week to week, and they are now 63-37-1 ATS through 11 weeks, so the previous trend also comes into effect here.
Shanahan struggles to live up to hype
San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has a good record in San Francisco, but he struggles as a favorite. In fact, when the 49ers are favorites under Shanahan, they are only 10-22-1 ATS. He is 3-10 ATS in his last 13 games as a favorite.
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The Minnesota Vikings have covered four consecutive road games, and are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as underdogs. The 49ers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a win against the spread.
Big Ben Loves Ohio
Ben Roethlisberger is an Ohio native and loves returning to play in his home state. He is 24-9 overall in his career against the Bengals, and 12-4 ATS in Cincinnati. Head coach Mike Tomlin loves being an underdog, and is 42-20-2 ATS in this spot in his career and 4-1 ATS this season.
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The Steelers are 16-4-2 ATS overall in their last 22 meetings in Cincinnati. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. The Bengals are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win, and 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite.
Road teams off a bye
Since 2003, road teams coming off a bye are an impressive 72-46-6 ATS. It's a small sample size thus far this year, but teams in that spot are 6-7 ATS in 2021.
In Week 12, there is one game that fits this mold: Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay.
The Rams are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a loss against the spread, and are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight-up loss.