NFL betting trends: Ben Roethlisberger owns the Cleveland Browns
As we near the halfway mark of the NFL season, there are plenty of juicy trends and eye-catching analytics available to make smart wagering decisions.
Let's break down the latest metrics from around the NFL and determine the trends you should take advantage of in Week 8 and beyond.
Road underdogs after a loss
It was a rough week for this trend, as it went 1-6 against the spread (ATS) last week. However, looking at the long term, this trend is bound to bounce back strong. Since the start of the 2019 season, road underdogs are 106-81-5 ATS after a loss. Road underdogs, after a loss, have a 18-17 record ATS in 2021.
In Week 8, there are three games that fit this mold — Miami at Buffalo, Carolina at Atlanta, and Washington at Denver.
This category is a moneymaker, and there are very few long-term trends you can say that about.
Which "surprise" team has the best chance to make a Super Bowl run?
Thursday night Unders and Sunday night Overs
Through seven weeks, the Under is 59-47 overall and 57-38 in non-overtime games. In Thursday-night games, the Under is 5-2. In Sunday-night games, the Over is 6-1. That means non-overtime, Sunday-afternoon games are 49-30-1 in favor of the Under.
It was a mediocre week for road underdogs, but they are still are 36-27 ATS through six weeks, so the previous trend also comes into effect here.
Big Ben owns Cleveland
Ben Roethlisberger’s record against the Cleveland Browns is an unreal 23-2-1 straight up, so it might be surprising to see the Steelers as an underdog in this matchup.
Sun, October 31 2021, 5:00 PM
There are even more numbers that back up the Steelers in this spot.
Browns coach Kevin Stefanski is 0-6 ATS in divisional games and Steelers coach Mike Tomlin is 40-20 ATS as an underdog. "Big Ben" is 25-11 ATS as a “short dog” (less than a touchdown).
Betting against Roethlisberger against Cleveland, especially as an underdog, is asking for trouble.
The city of Cleveland owes a happy father’s day to Ben Roethlisberger.— Daniel Valente (@StatsGuyDaniel) June 21, 2020
Ben vs the Browns:
23-2-1 record all time vs the Browns
12-0 vs the Browns at Heinz Field
11-2-1 vs the Browns in Cleveland
Has won more games in Cleveland than any Browns’ QB. #Steelers pic.twitter.com/xQyYNob9oX
Cowboys still undefeated against the spread
The Dallas Cowboys have a 5-1 straight-up record, but they are 6-0 ATS. Fresh off a bye, they will get to face the Minnesota Vikings in a Sunday-night matchup.
There are several trends to back them in this spot.
Mon, November 1 2021, 12:20 AM
Dallas head coach Mike McCarthy is 11-2-1 ATS off a bye. Road favorites off a bye are 68-41-2 ATS since 2003. Kirk Cousins is 1-7 ATS off a bye and is 3-10 straight up as a primetime underdog. The Vikings are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.
Doubt Belichick at your own risk
The New England Patriots are clearly not the same without Tom Brady, but they did not fall off the face of the Earth. They have a 3-4 record, but they have two last-second losses to the Cowboys and Tampa Bay Buccaneers and a loss on a late fumble in Week 1 to the Miami Dolphins.
Sun, October 31 2021, 8:05 PM
Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is 28-14-2 ATS as an underdog and 23-21 straight up in those games. The Patriots are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 8, and they are 6-0 ATS in their last six matchups with the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games against a team with a losing record and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games in Week 8.