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NFL Betting Trends: Bengals are right at home on the West Coast

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November 17th, 2021

Now that we're past the halfway mark of the NFL season, there are plenty of juicy trends and eye-catching analytics available to make smart wagering decisions.

Let's break down the latest metrics from around the NFL, and determine the trends you should take advantage of in Week 11 and beyond.

Road underdogs after a loss

This trend is not only back, but better than ever, going a perfect 5-0 ATS last week. That makes a two week stretch of 10-1 ATS!

Since the start of the 2019 season, road underdogs are 117-84-5 ATS after a loss. In 2021, road underdogs after a loss have a 29-20 ATS record.

In Week 11, there are two games that fit this mold — New Orleans at Philadelphia, and Houston at Tennessee. However, there are two games that are like this trend in being road underdogs after a tie – Detroit at Cleveland, and Pittsburgh at Los Angeles Chargers. Also, keep an eye on the spreads for the Bengals and Cardinals as they are close enough to move to underdogs.

This category is a moneymaker, and there are very few long-term trends you can say that about.

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Sunday Unders are staying hot

Through 10 weeks, the Under is 83-66 overall, and 80-55 in non-overtime games.

In Thursday night games, the Under is 7-3. In Sunday night games, the Over is 7-3. In Monday night games, the Over is 6-4. That means non-overtime, Sunday afternoon games are 66-44-1 in favor of the Under.

Road underdogs had a strong showing the last month, and they are now 56-34-1 ATS through 10 weeks, so the previous trend also comes into effect here.

Bengals love the West Coast

The Bengals are not a shining beacon of consistency... except when they travel to the West Coast. Cincinnati has covered 10 consecutive games in the Pacific Time Zone.

Sun, November 21 2021, 9:05 PM

LV Raiders

Moneyline

-107

Spread

+0.5

Total

O 49.5

CIN Bengals

Moneyline

-114

Spread

-0.5

Total

U 49.5

You must go all the way back to November 2009, when the Bengals traveled to play the Oakland Raiders, that they failed to cover in this time zone. The Bengals are also 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit home loss. They have covered in four consecutive games with the Raiders.

Bills Mafia is hard to overcome

The Buffalo Bills have one of the rowdiest and most loyal fan bases in the NFL, and it shows in results on the field. The Bills are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games, and 5-1 ATS in their last six games as home favorites.

Sun, November 21 2021, 6:00 PM

BUF Bills

Moneyline

-335

Spread

-7

Total

O 50

IND Colts

Moneyline

+255

Spread

+7

Total

U 50

The Colts are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after a win. Meanwhile, the Bills are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a win. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these two teams, and the favorite is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Buffalo is 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall.

Road teams off a bye

Since 2003, road teams coming off a bye are an impressive 70-45-6 ATS. It's a small sample size thus far this year, but teams in that spot are 4-6 ATS in 2021.

In Week 11, there are three games that fit this mold — Houston at Tennessee, Cincinnati at Las Vegas, and New York Giants at Tampa Bay.

The Texans are 14-6 ATS in their past 20 games against the Titans. The Giants are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games as road underdogs.

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