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NFL betting trends: Cousins has been putrid in primetime

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December 22nd, 2020

We've reached Week 16 of the 2020 NFL season, and we have a strong set of data to determine how the year is trending.

Let's break down the latest metrics from around the NFL and determine the trends you should take advantage of in Week 16 and beyond.

Road underdogs off a loss

This trend continues to be a moneymaker as it went 3-2 in Week 15 of the NFL season. Road underdogs coming off a loss are now 84-58-5 ATS since the start of the 2019 season. Look for this trend to continue for the remainder of the season.

In Week 16, the Vikings travel to play the Saints, the 49ers travel to play the Cardinals, the Panthers travel to play the Washington Football Team, the Giants travel to play the Ravens, the Falcons travel to play the Chiefs, the Broncos travel to play the Chargers, and the Rams travel to play the Seahawks.

Who will win the NFC East?

Cousins back in primetime

Merry Christmas! The NFL is back on Christmas day for the first time since a 2017 double-header. Unfortunately, for Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings, it's another primetime game. Cousins has been historically bad in this kind of scenario, as he is 4-11-1 ATS in any sort of primetime game since joining the Vikings.

In his entire career, Cousins is 6-14 ATS in games played on any day other than Sunday. Christmas day falls on a Friday, making this a very rare Friday NFL game. It is also tough to bet against Drew Brees in the regular season. He is an incredible 164-117-6 ATS in his career.

Fri, December 25 2020, 9:30 PM

New Orleans Saints

Moneyline

-200

Spread

+0.5

Total

O 59

Minnesota Vikings

Moneyline

+205

Spread

-0.5

Total

U 59

Betting against Miami is a losing game

No team in the NFL has been better against the spread this year than the Miami Dolphins. They are an astounding 11-3 ATS this year and 20-6 ATS since Week 5 of last season, when head coach Brian Flores started to turn the franchise around.

The Dolphins have covered in four consecutive games played on Saturdays and five consecutive games played in December. Meanwhile, The Las Vegas Raiders have failed to cover four consecutive games and are 2-9 ATS in their last nine December games.

Sun, December 27 2020, 1:15 AM

Las Vegas Raiders

Moneyline

+123

Spread

-3.5

Total

O 49

Miami Dolphins

Moneyline

-148

Spread

+3.5

Total

U 49

Teddy is a road warrior

Teddy Bridgewater is once again finding himself as a road underdog in Week 16. In his career, "Teddy Two Gloves" is 19-2 ATS as a road underdog after covering in this spot at Lambeau Field last Saturday. I can understand why the Washington Football Team is favored here, but Teddy will make you pay once again if you bet against him.

The Panthers are also 6-0 ATS in their last six road games and 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog at any venue. The Football Team are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games as a favorite.

Sun, December 27 2020, 6:00 PM

Washington Football Team

Moneyline

-134

Spread

-2

Total

O 44.5

Carolina Panthers

Moneyline

+110

Spread

+2

Total

U 44.5

Time to crown a new King of the East

The Buffalo Bills have finally taken back the AFC East division, and Josh Allen has proven himself to be the next great quarterback in the division. Now he will get his chance to fire a kill shot on Monday Night Football against the former kings in New England. Allen is an impressive 12-5-2 ATS on the road in his career.

The Bills have covered in six consecutive games and are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six December games. The Patriots are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five December games, and will be playing their first regular season game knowing they will not be in the postseason since 2000.

Tue, December 29 2020, 1:15 AM

New England Patriots

Moneyline

+235

Spread

+6.5

Total

O 45.5

Buffalo Bills

Moneyline

-305

Spread

-6.5

Total

U 45.5

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