NFL Betting Trends: Dak Prescott owns the NFC East
As we enter the final stretch of the NFL season, there are plenty of juicy trends and eye-catching analytics available to make smart wagering decisions.
Let's break down the latest metrics from around the NFL, and determine the trends you should take advantage of in Week 16 and beyond.
Road underdogs after a loss
This trend bounced back strong last week, going 3-1-1 ATS.
Since the start of the 2019 season, road underdogs are 126-94-6 ATS after a loss. In 2021, road underdogs after a loss have a 38-30-1 ATS record.
In Week 16, there are seven games that fit this mold: Cleveland at Green Bay, New York Giants at Philadelphia, Baltimore at Cincinnati, Jacksonville at New York Jets, Chicago at Seattle, Denver at Las Vegas, and Washington at Dallas.
This category is a moneymaker, and there are few long-term trends you can say that about.
Which team will end the season as the 7-seed in the NFC?
Total Tides Turning
Through 15 weeks, the Under is 125-98 overall, and 121-84 in non-overtime games.
In Thursday night games, the Under is 10-5. In Sunday night games, the Over is 9-6. In Monday night games, the Under is 8-7. That means non-overtime, Sunday afternoon games are 92-71-1 in favor of the Under.
However, the tides have turned in these categories over the past month. In Thursday night games, the Under is 2-2 over the past four weeks. In Sunday night games, the Over is 1-3. In Monday night games, the Under is 3-1. Non-overtime Sunday afternoon games are 18-23 for the Under.
Road underdogs have been mediocre the past few weeks, but are still 74-55-1 ATS through 15 weeks, so the previous trend also comes into effect here.
Keep playing the bounce back
As we discussed in last week’s column, there is an intriguing trend this season that is hitting at an astounding rate. After going 52-28-1 ATS in the first 14 weeks of the season, teams that did not cover the week prior went 2-2 ATS against teams that did cover the prior week in Week 15.
That puts this trend at 54-30-1 ATS on the season, which is a 64% hit rate. You cannot get much better than that in the NFL betting world for a trend with this large of a sample size. In Week 15, there are eight games that fit this mold: Tennessee at home to San Francisco, Green Bay at home to Cleveland, Arizona at home to Indianapolis, Los Angeles Chargers at Houston, Atlanta at home to Detroit, Jacksonville at New York Jets, New England at home to Buffalo, and Miami at New Orleans.
Josh Allen: Road Dog Warrior
As we mentioned above, road underdogs are typically a good bet in the NFL this season. Well, Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills takes this to a whole new level. In regular season games, Allen is 17-8-2 ATS on the road and 15-7-2 ATS as an underdog. When you combine the two, he is an astounding 9-3-2 ATS.
Sun, December 26 2021, 6:00 PM
The Bills are 4-2-1 ATS in their last seven trips to New England, and the road team is 18-6-2 ATS in the last 26 meetings between these two teams. The underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six matchups between these two. The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five December games.
Dak owns the East
Since entering the NFL with the Dallas Cowboys in 2016, Dak Prescott has had a ton of success in divisional games. Prescott is 21-8 ATS against NFC East opponents. That is covering at an incredible 72%!
Not only does Prescott cover a large amount of the games he plays in against the NFC East, he covers by an average of 5.2 points per game! The Washington Football Team, meanwhile, are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the NFC East. The Cowboys have covered six consecutive games in the month of December.