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NFL Betting Trends: Death, Taxes, and Teddy Bridgewater Covers

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September 22nd, 2021

Our NFL Betting Trends column is rolling again! It may only be Week 3, but there are already plenty of juicy trends and eye-catching analytics available to make smart wagering decisions!

Let's break down the latest metrics from around the NFL and determine the trends you should take advantage of in Week 3 and beyond.

Road underdogs off a loss

We talked about this trend being so strong in the last two seasons in last week’s column. Well, it has continued this season with a 4-2 record to start off 2021. Since the start of the 2019 season, road underdogs coming off a loss are 92-66-5 ATS now.

In Week 3, there are several games that fit this mold. The Indianapolis Colts travel to play the Tennessee Titans, the New Orleans Saints play the Patriots in New England, the Los Angeles Chargers go to Kansas City to play the Chiefs, the Atlanta Falcons play in New York against the Giants, the Cincinnati Bengals travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers, the Miami Dolphins play at Las Vegas against the Raiders, the New York Jets go to Denver to play the Broncos, and the Philadelphia Eagles play at Dallas.

Which Week 2 underdog win was the most shocking?

Unders and Underdogs stay hot

Through two weeks of the season, the Unders are 17-15 overall and 17-12 in non-overtime games. In primetime games, the Under is an astonishing 0-6! And only one of those games went to overtime. That means all non-overtime Sunday afternoon games are 17-7 in favor of the Under.

After an incredible 12-4 ATS start for underdogs in Week 1, they went 9-7 ATS in Week 2. The road underdogs are 13-5 ATS through two weeks, so the above trend also comes into effect here.

Teddy Two Gloves is Back At It

Teddy Bridgewater is team-proof when it comes to covering spreads. He did it for Minnesota, New Orleans, and Carolina, and now he's doing it again in Denver. In his career as a starting quarterback, he is an unheard of 73% cover. This is 37-14 ATS in all situations.

Sun, September 26 2021, 8:05 PM

DEN Broncos

Moneyline

-670

Spread

-11

Total

O 41

NY Jets

Moneyline

+460

Spread

+11

Total

U 41

Bridgewater is 2-0 ATS to start this season, and is an efficiency machine. He has completed 77% of his passes with four touchdowns and no interceptions. To add to this trend, the Broncos are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against a team with a losing record, and 4-1 ATS in their last five games as favorites.  

Fade Daniel Jones at Home

Daniel Jones has been incredible at covering on the road (10-4 ATS), but is a lowly 4-10 ATS in all home games. The Giants QB has been a turnover machine at home, as he has thrown 16 interceptions and has lost nine fumbles in those 14 games. 

Another interesting trend for this game is that the Under has gone 11-1 in the last 12 meetings between these two teams, and 13-2 overall dating back to when betting data was available in 1984. Also, the Under is 8-1 in the last nine games for the Giants. 

Sun, September 26 2021, 5:00 PM

NY Giants

Moneyline

-175

Spread

-3

Total

O 48.5

ATL Falcons

Moneyline

+140

Spread

+3

Total

U 48.5

Chiefs are ice cold against the spread

The Kansas City Chiefs went on a red hot 15-2 ATS tear over 17 games between 2019 and 2020. However, they have dramatically turned the temperature on their covering ability. They are an ice cold 1-11-1 ATS over their last 13 games.

Sun, September 26 2021, 5:00 PM

KC Chiefs

Moneyline

-295

Spread

-6.5

Total

O 55.5

LA Chargers

Moneyline

+230

Spread

+6.5

Total

U 55.5

They host the Chargers this week, and the road team is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings. The Chargers are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games, and 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Another interesting trend for this game is that the Under is 8-0 in the last eight games played in September for the Chargers, and 4-1 in the last five games for the Chiefs following a straight-up loss. 

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