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NFL betting trends for Thanksgiving week

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November 24th, 2020

We've reached the best week of the year — Thanksgiving week!

Let's break down the latest metrics from around the NFL to determine the trends you should take advantage of in Week 12 and beyond.

Detroit is not so thankful for Thanksgiving

The Lions get the early afternoon game every Thanksgiving. However, they are not so thankful for that, given their history. They have a 37-41-2 record on Thanksgiving, and they are even worse in recent history. The Lions have lost three consecutive Thanksgiving games and are 5-14 in their 19 holiday matchups.

This season, the Lions have failed to cover in three of their past four games. Meanwhile, the Texans have covered in back-to-back games, even though they have been one of the worst teams against the spread this season.

The Texans are favored, and the favorite is 11-1 overall and 9-3 ATS on Thanksgiving Day since 2016.

Thu, November 26 2020, 5:30 PM

Detroit Lions

Spread

+2.5

Moneyline

+130

Total

O 51

Houston Texans

Spread

-2.5

Moneyline

-155

Total

U 51

Something has to give in Dallas

The Cowboys started the season 0-8 ATS. However, they have covered in consecutive games and actually looked like a real football team against the Vikings on Sunday.

Dallas has also struggled on Thanksgiving in recent years. The Cowboys have a 4-5 record and are 1-8 ATS in their last nine Thanksgiving games. The one cover was against Washington in 2018.

Washington also has a bad history on Thanksgiving, with a 3-8 record on the holiday. Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall as a road underdog.

Thu, November 26 2020, 9:30 PM

Dallas Cowboys

Spread

-3

Moneyline

-175

Total

O 46

Washington Football Team

Spread

+3

Moneyline

+145

Total

U 46

Nobody puts Lamar Jackson in a corner

The Ravens have lost three of their last four games and find themselves on the outside of the playoff picture in the AFC. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are backed into a corner on the road, and that is when they are most dangerous.

The Ravens have covered four consecutive games as an underdog and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games. They are also 31-14-6 ATS in their last 51 road games against a team with a winning record. The Ravens also fit the profile of a road underdog following a loss. These teams are 75-50-5 ATS since the start of the 2019 season.

Fri, November 27 2020, 1:20 AM

Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread

-4.5

Moneyline

-215

Total

O 45

Baltimore Ravens

Spread

+4.5

Moneyline

+180

Total

U 45

Another intriguing trend is that the night Thanksgiving game is a haven for Unders. The Under has hit in every primetime Thanksgiving Day game since 2014 and has hit in seven of the nine primetime Thanksgiving games in history.

Which is your best bet for Thanksgiving Day football?

Rodgers is the King of the North

Aaron Rodgers dominates the NFC North, and he dominates games at Lambeau Field. On Sunday night, he'll gets to play both at home and against a division opponent.

Mon, November 30 2020, 1:20 AM

Green Bay Packers

Spread

-9

Moneyline

-425

Total

O 45

Chicago Bears

Spread

+9

Moneyline

+330

Total

U 45

Rodgers is 55-32-3 ATS at home and 44-26 ATS against divisional opponents. When he plays divisional games at home, he is 22-12 ATS.

Meanwhile, the Bears are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games and 0-2 ATS following a bye under head coach Matt Nagy.

Finally time for the Jets?

The New York Jets are off the their worst start franchise history. They also have the second-longest losing streak in the franchise history, behind the 12 consecutive losses in the 1995 and 1996 seasons.

The Jets have gotten closer to winning in the past few weeks, though. They only lost to Buffalo by eight points in Week 7, to New England by three in Week 9, and to the Los Angeles Chargers by six on Sunday.

Home underdogs in divisional games are 14-4 ATS this season and the Jets are 2-0 ATS in those scenarios this season. The Jets have also covered three of their last four games. It might finally be time for them to enter the win column in 2020.

Sun, November 29 2020, 6:00 PM

New York Jets

Spread

+7

Moneyline

+240

Total

O 44.5

Miami Dolphins

Spread

-7

Moneyline

-305

Total

U 44.5

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