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NFL betting trends: It Hurts to start Wentz

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December 15th, 2020

We've reached Week 15 of the 2020 NFL season, and we have a strong set of data to determine how the year is trending.

Let's break down the latest metrics from around the NFL and determine the trends you should take advantage of in Week 15 and beyond.

Road underdogs off a loss

This trend may have taken a slight step back in Week 14, as road underdogs went 1-3 against the spread. However, the trend is still 81-56-5 ATS since the start of the 2019 season. Therefore, I would expect the Week 15 games to trend back towards the positive side with a winning week ATS.

In Week 15, the Lions travel to face the Titans, the Panthers travel to face the Packers, the Texans travel to face the Colts, the Jets travel to face the Rams, the Jaguars travel to face the Ravens, and the Patriots travel to face the Dolphins. Betting all six of these games ATS is likely going to end up with you winning at least four.

Are the 2020 New York Jets the worst team in NFL history?

The curse is real

Last week, we discussed how MetLife seems to be cursed for the New York Giants, especially when it comes to covering the spread. The G-Men failed to cover the spread again in Week 14 after getting beat down by the Arizona Cardinals. New York is now 3-8 ATS at home since the infamous black cat ran across its football field.

In Week 15, the Giants will host the Cleveland Browns at MetLife Stadium. If you want some numbers before the black cat cursed the Giants, the Giants are 34-50-2 ATS all time at MetLife stadium. Maybe the stadium is just not meant to be home for the Giants.

Are the Patriots still "The Patriots"?

This season, the New England Patriots are a mediocre 6-7 ATS. They are even worse when they face a good team. When they face teams with at least a 55% win percentage against the spread, they are 1-4 ATS. The Patriots are also 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a winning home record.

Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins are 10-3 ATS this season. Since Brian Flores took over as head coach last season, the Dolphins are 19-10 ATS with a 0-4 ATS start due to personnel experimentations.

Sun, December 20 2020, 6:00 PM

Miami Dolphins

Spread

-2

Moneyline

-145

Total

O 41.5

New England Patriots

Spread

+2

Moneyline

+125

Total

U 41.5

Eagles better without Wentz?

There is no doubt that the Philadelphia Eagles have looked rejuvenated since Carson Wentz was benched. However, if you look at the history of the Eagles against the spread without Wentz under Doug Pederson, it is pretty telling. The Eagles are 10-4 ATS with any quarterback besides Carson Wentz.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals are atrocious as home favorites under head coach Kliff Kingsbury. They are 1-4 ATS as home favorites under Kingsbury, and 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games overall as a home favorite.

Sun, December 20 2020, 9:05 PM

Arizona Cardinals

Spread

-6.5

Moneyline

-285

Total

O 48.5

Philadelphia Eagles

Spread

+6.5

Moneyline

+225

Total

U 48.5

December is not kind to Pittsburgh

The Pittsburgh Steelers suffered their second consecutive loss after an 11-0 start to the season. They have now lost five consecutive games in the month of December dating back to last season. They have also lost six consecutive games against the spread in the month of December.

The Steelers will now travel to Cincinnati for a Monday Night Football showdown. The Bengals look terrible since losing QB Joe Burrow to injury, but they are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games and divisional home underdogs have been money this season at 15-10 ATS.

Tue, December 22 2020, 1:15 AM

Cincinnati Bengals

Spread

+12.5

Moneyline

+525

Total

O 40

Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread

-12.5

Moneyline

-775

Total

U 40

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