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NFL betting trends: Miami is an ATS lock as a home underdog

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September 15th, 2021

Our NFL Betting Trends column is back! It may only be Week 2, but there are plenty of juicy trends and eye-catching analytics available to make smart wagering decisions!

Let's break down the latest metrics from around the NFL and determine the trends you should take advantage of in Week 2 and beyond.

Road underdogs off a loss

For the last two seasons, this trend has been a strong moneymaker. Since the start of the 2019 season, road underdogs coming off a loss are 88-64-5 ATS. That is a 58% winning percentage!

In Week 2, there are several games that fit this mold. The New York Giants travel to our nation's capital to play the Washington Football Team, the Minnesota Vikings play the Cardinals in Arizona, the Atlanta Falcons go to Tampa Bay to play the Buccaneers, the Tennessee Titans play in Seattle against the Seahawks, the Dallas Cowboys travel to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers, and the Detroit Lions play at Green Bay.

Which Week 1 disappointment is most likely to bounce back in Week 2?

Underdogs are barking early

In Week 1 of the NFL season, underdogs went an incredible 12-4 ATS. They also went 9-7 straight-up! The road underdogs went 7-2 ATS, so the above trend also comes into effect here.

However, the big thing to look for here is an overreaction to a Week 1 performance. A few spreads that stand out as overreactions to impressive Week 1 performances are the New Orleans Saints (-3.5) on the road at Carolina, Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) at Chicago, Miami (+3.5) at home to Buffalo, Denver (-6) at Jacksonville, and the Los Angeles Rams (-4) at Indianapolis.

Miami continues to cover

Since Brian Flores took over as head coach of the Dolphins, he has completely changed the culture in Miami. After an 0-4 start to his first season, he has gone 16-13 straight-up and an insane 21-8 ATS.

Sun, September 19 2021, 5:00 PM

MIA Dolphins

Moneyline

+138

Spread

+3.5

Total

O 48

BUF Bills

Moneyline

-175

Spread

-3.5

Total

U 48

This week they are home underdogs to the Buffalo Bills after pulling off the upset win on the road in New England in Week 1. Miami is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a home underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last six divisional games. They are also on a six game home covering streak and an eight game home covering streak against a team with a losing record.

Unders have a good history early on

In Week 1 of the season, the Unders went 9-7 overall and 9-5 in non-overtime games. In divisional games, the Under went 1-1, but in the history of Week 2 divisional games, we have a fun trend to make some money on.

Since 2005, Week 2 divisional Unders are 55-38-1, which is a 59% winning percentage! This year, you get the Giants and Washington Football Team on Thursday night, the Saints/Panthers, Bills/Dolphins, Patriots/Jets, and Falcons/Bucs on Sunday, and Lions and Packers on Monday night.

No respect for Philly

The Eagles had to start Week 1 on the roads as 3.5-point underdogs to a mediocre Atlanta Falcons team. After a dominant victory on the road, they return home in Week 2 to play the 49ers, yet they remain 3.5-point underdogs.

Sun, September 19 2021, 5:00 PM

PHI Eagles

Moneyline

+140

Spread

+3.5

Total

O 49.5

SF 49ers

Moneyline

-175

Spread

-3.5

Total

U 49.5

The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as home underdogs and have covered four consecutive home games overall. They are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with the 49ers. The Eagles will gladly continue to play the role of underdogs with these numbers.

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