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NFL Betting Trends: New Orleans Saints Love Being the Underdog

Profile Picture: Jeremy Jones

November 10th, 2021

At the halfway mark of the NFL season, there are plenty of juicy trends and eye-catching analytics available to make smart wagering decisions.

Let's break down the latest metrics from around the NFL and determine the trends you should take advantage of in Week 10 and beyond.

Road underdogs after a loss

It was an impressive bounceback week for this trend as predicted, going 5-1 ATS after a 2-8 stretch over the previous two weeks.

Since the start of the 2019 season, road underdogs are 112-84-5 ATS after a loss. In 2021, road underdogs after a loss have a 24-20 ATS record.

In Week 10, there are five games that fit this mold — New Orleans at Tennessee, Detroit at Pittsburgh, Minnesota at Los Angeles Chargers, Carolina at Arizona, and Philadelphia at Denver.

This category is a moneymaker, and there are very few long-term trends you can say that about.

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Lazy Sunday Unders

Through nine weeks, the Under is 74-61 overall, and 72-50 in non-overtime games.

In Thursday night games, the Under is 6-3. In Sunday night games, the Over is 6-3. In Monday night games, the Over is 6-3. That means non-overtime, Sunday afternoon games are 60-40-1 in favor of the Under.

Road underdogs had a strong showing the last two weeks, and they are now 51-31-1 ATS through nine weeks, so the previous trend also comes into effect here.

Not so fast my friend

Teams that pull off huge upsets (double-digit point underdogs) tend to struggle in their following game. The Jacksonville Jaguars will find themselves in this spot this week when they travel to play the Indianapolis Colts.

Sun, November 14 2021, 6:00 PM

IND Colts

Moneyline

-455

Spread

-10

Total

O 47.5

JAX Jaguars

Moneyline

+340

Spread

+10

Total

U 47.5

When a team wins straight-up as a double-digit point underdog, they are only 15-18-1 ATS in their following game. When they find themselves as double-digit point underdogs again, this number falls to 1-7 ATS. The Jaguars are also 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.

Saints love being the underdog

The New Orleans Saints shocked the Tampa Bay Buccaneers two weeks ago before being upset last week by the Atlanta Falcons. Now they find themselves in their more comfortable role as underdogs.

Sun, November 14 2021, 6:00 PM

TEN Titans

Moneyline

-152

Spread

-3

Total

O 44.5

NO Saints

Moneyline

+125

Spread

+3

Total

U 44.5

The Saints are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs and 3-0 ATS in such situations this year. New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between these two teams.

Road teams off a bye

Since 2003, road teams coming off a bye are an impressive 69-43-6 ATS. It is a small sample size thus far this year, but teams in that spot are 3-4 ATS in 2021.

In Week 10, there are three games that fit this mold — Tampa Bay at Washington, Detroit at Pittsburgh, and Seattle at Green Bay.

The Bucs are 7-1 ATS in their past eight games following an ATS loss. The Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss. The Seahawks are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as road underdogs.

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