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NFL Betting Trends: Patriots are appealing underdogs against Bills

Profile Picture: Jeremy Jones

December 1st, 2021

As we enter the final stretch of the NFL season, there are plenty of juicy trends and eye-catching analytics available to make smart wagering decisions.

Let's break down the latest metrics from around the NFL, and determine the trends you should take advantage of in Week 13 and beyond.

Road underdogs after a loss

This trend has been red-hot, going 12-4 ATS over the past month. If you count the two teams that were road underdogs after a tie, then you're looking at 14-4 ATS!

Since the start of the 2019 season, road underdogs are 120-87-5 ATS after a loss. In 2021, road underdogs after a loss have a 32-23 ATS record.

In Week 13, there are two games that fit this mold — Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati, and Jacksonville at Los Angeles Rams.

This category is a moneymaker, and there are very few long-term trends you can say that about.

Which sub .500 team has the best chance of making the playoffs in the NFC?

Thursday Night Football Unders are Locks

Through 12 weeks, the Under is 101-78 overall, and 98-66 in non-overtime games.

In Thursday night games, the Under is 9-3. In Sunday night games, the Over is 8-4. In Monday night games, the Over is 6-6. That means non-overtime, Sunday afternoon games are 78-56-1 in favor of the Under.

Road underdogs keep improving from week to week, and they are now 64-41-1 ATS through 12 weeks, so the previous trend also comes into effect here.

Betting the Bounce Back Pays Off

There is a very interesting trend that has built up this season through 12 weeks. Teams that did not cover the spread in the previous week are covering at an astounding rate when they face a team that did cover the previous week.

Currently, those teams are 46-23-1 ATS this season in that scenario. In Week 13, there are five games that fit that mold – Minnesota at Detroit, Philadelphia at New York Jets, Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati, Pittsburgh at home to Baltimore, and Seattle at home to San Francisco.

Patriots in a good spot

The New England Patriots will be traveling to Buffalo for a Monday Night Football game with the Bills with massive implications. The winner will have a stranglehold on the AFC East. There are quite a few trends here to back the Patriots.

Tue, December 7 2021, 1:15 AM

BUF Bills

Moneyline

-155

Spread

-3

Total

O 44

NE Patriots

Moneyline

+125

Spread

+3

Total

U 44

Since 2003, MNF road dogs of less than a touchdown in divisional games are 20-12 ATS and 15-16 straight up. The Patriots have covered 67% of their games as underdogs with Bill Belichick as coach.

New England is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 meetings in Buffalo and they have covered six consecutive games. Meanwhile, the Bills are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games against AFC teams and the underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings between these two teams.

Road teams off a bye

Since 2003, road teams coming off a bye are an impressive 72-47-6 ATS. It's a small sample size so far this year, but teams in that spot are 6-8 ATS in 2021.

In Week 13, there is one game that fits this mold: Arizona at Chicago.

The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings and 19-7-3 ATS in their last 29 road games. The Bears have lost four consecutive games against the spread as a home underdog.

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