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NFL Betting Trends: Pittsburgh Steelers thrive when odds are stacked against them

Profile Picture: Jeremy Jones

December 15th, 2021

As we enter the final stretch of the NFL season, there are plenty of juicy trends and eye-catching analytics available to make smart wagering decisions.

Let's break down the latest metrics from around the NFL, and determine the trends you should take advantage of in Week 15 and beyond.

Road underdogs after a loss

This trend took a beating last week, going 2-5 ATS. However, it's a long-term winner and should not be abandoned after one bad week.

Since the start of the 2019 season, road underdogs are 123-93-5 ATS after a loss. In 2021, road underdogs after a loss have a 35-29 ATS record.

In Week 15, there are six games that fit this mold: Las Vegas at Cleveland, Washington at Philadelphia, Carolina at Buffalo, New York Jets at Miami, Houston at Jacksonville, and Cincinnati at Denver.

This category is a moneymaker, and there are few long-term trends you can say that about.

Which team is most likely to win the AFC North?

Sunday Afternoon Unders and Sunday Night Overs

Through 14 weeks, the Under is 114-93 overall, and 110-80 in non-overtime games.

In Thursday night games, the Under is 10-4. In Sunday night games, the Over is 9-5. In Monday night games, the Under is 7-7. That means non-overtime, Sunday afternoon games are 87-67-1 in favor of the Under.

Road underdogs took a beating last week, but are still 70-51-1 ATS through 14 weeks, so the previous trend also comes into effect here.

Don't Overreact from week to week

As we discussed in last week’s column, there is an intriguing trend this season that is hitting at an astounding rate. After going 50-24-1 ATS in the first 13 weeks of the season, teams that did not cover the week prior went 2-4 ATS against teams that did cover the prior week in Week 13.

That puts this trend at 52-28-1 ATS on the season, which is a 65% hit rate. You cannot get much better than that in the NFL betting world for a trend with this large of a sample size. In Week 15, there are four games that fit this mold: New York Giants at home to Dallas, Pittsburgh at home to Tennessee, Cincinnati at Denver, and Chicago at home to Minnesota.

Houston fits a different road dog trend

Not only is Houston a road underdog coming off a loss, but they also fit another specific trend in this game as a road dog. Teams that are road underdogs on a three-game losing streak that opened between +3 and +6 are 42-27 ATS since 2003.

Sun, December 19 2021, 6:00 PM

JAX Jaguars

Moneyline

-180

Spread

-3.5

Total

O 39.5

HOU Texans

Moneyline

+145

Spread

+3.5

Total

U 39.5

The Texans have covered five of the past seven matchups overall and five of the past seven matchups in Jacksonville. Also, the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams. The Jaguars are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.

Tomlin should not be doubted

Despite failing to cover last week as an underdog, Mike Tomlin is 43-22-2 ATS all-time as head coach of the Steelers in an underdog role. It gets even better in the latter part of the season for Tomlin. His teams are 35-13-1 ATS as an underdog in Weeks 5 and beyond. They are 13-3-2 ATS in those spots when the Steelers are at home.

Sun, December 19 2021, 6:00 PM

PIT Steelers

Moneyline

+104

Spread

+2

Total

O 41.5

TEN Titans

Moneyline

-127

Spread

-2

Total

U 41.5

The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams. The Titans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a road favorite. The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against an AFC team and 4-1 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning record.

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