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NFL Betting Trends: Rams and Saints don't lose back-to-back often

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October 5th, 2021

After about a quarter of the NFL season, there are plenty of juicy trends and eye-catching analytics available to make smart wagering decisions.

Let's break down the latest metrics from around the NFL and determine the trends you should take advantage of in Week 5 and beyond.

Road underdogs after a loss

We talked about this trend in last week’s column and it has continued this season. Road underdogs after a loss have a 13-8 record against the spread in 2021. Since the start of the 2019 season, road underdogs are 101-72-5 ATS after a loss.

In Week 5, there are several games that fit this mold — Miami at Tampa Bay, Philadelphia at Carolina, Detroit at Minnesota, Denver at Pittsburgh, and San Francisco at Arizona. Also, keep an eye on the spread for the Thursday-night game between the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams. The Rams would fit, if they become an underdog.

Which scenario will happen first?

McVay is more dangerous off a loss

Rams head coach Sean McVay is even better on the road off a loss. Off a loss, McVay is 13-6-1 ATS in his next game. When that next game is on the road, he is 8-2 ATS.

The Rams are also dominant ATS in divisional games, despite the loss to the Cardinals last week. They are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games against the NFC West and 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games against any NFC team. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Seahawks.

Fri, October 8 2021, 12:20 AM

SEA Seahawks

Moneyline

+106

Spread

+1.5

Total

O 54.5

LA Rams

Moneyline

-129

Spread

-1.5

Total

U 54.5

Sean Payton does not like losing

Just like McVay, Saints head coach Sean Payton is deadly after a loss. Payton is 48-26 ATS after a loss and 25-10 ATS when that next game is away from the Superdome.

The Saints are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite and in their last nine games against NFC opponents. They are also 36-15 ATS in their last 51 October games.

Sun, October 10 2021, 5:00 PM

WAS Football Team

Moneyline

+107

Spread

+2

Total

O 44.5

NO Saints

Moneyline

-132

Spread

-2

Total

U 44.5

The Under and underdogs still rolling

Through four weeks of the season, the Under is 37-27 overall and 37-21 in non-overtime games. In primetime games, the Under is 4-8 and only one of those games went to overtime. That means all non-overtime, Sunday-afternoon games are 33-14 in favor of the Under.

After a 12-4 ATS start for underdogs in Week 1, they went 9-7 ATS in Weeks 2 and 3 and 8-9 ATS in Week 4. Road underdogs are 25-15 ATS through four weeks, so the previous trend also comes into effect here.

Bridgewater back in a good spot

Teddy Bridgewater can cover in any spot (38-15 ATS), but he is especially good in the scenario he'll face Sunday.

Bridgewater is 19-2 ATS when he is a road underdog. He is also 24-7 ATS as an underdog and 23-3 ATS on the road.

Sun, October 10 2021, 5:00 PM

PIT Steelers

Moneyline

-118

Spread

-1

Total

O 40

DEN Broncos

Moneyline

-104

Spread

+1

Total

U 40

The Broncos are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss against the spread and they are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Pittsburgh Steelers. The underdog in the last four meetings between these two teams is 3-0-1 ATS.

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