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NFL Betting Trends: Russell Wilson is "DangeRuss" off a Loss

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September 29th, 2021

Our NFL Betting Trends column is rolling again! It may only be Week 4, but there are already plenty of juicy trends and eye-catching analytics available to make smart wagering decisions.

Let's break down the latest metrics from around the NFL and determine the trends you should take advantage of in Week 4 and beyond.

Road underdogs off a loss

We talked about this trend being so strong in the last two seasons in last week’s column. Well, it has continued this season, with a 9-5 record to start off 2021. Since the start of the 2019 season, road underdogs coming off a loss are 97-69-5 ATS now.

In Week 4, there are several games that fit this mold. The Jacksonville Jaguars travel to Cincinnati to play the Bengals, the Detroit Lions play the Bears in Chicago, the Indianapolis Colts go to Miami to play the Dolphins, the New York Giants play in New Orleans against the Saints, the Houston Texans travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills, the Seattle Seahawks play at San Francisco against the 49ers, and the Pittsburgh Steelers go to Green Bay to play the Packers.

Which 0-3 team still has the best chance of making the playoffs?

Unders and Underdogs remain hot

Through three weeks of the season, the Unders are 28-20 overall and 28-16 in non-overtime games. In primetime games, the Under is an astonishing 1-8! And only one of those games went to overtime. That means all non-overtime Sunday afternoon games are 27-9 in favor of the Under.

After an incredible 12-4 ATS start for underdogs in Week 1, they went 9-7 ATS in Weeks 2 and 3. The road underdogs are 19-10 ATS through three weeks, so the above trend also comes into effect here.

Russ is dangerous when backed into a corner

Russell Wilson finds himself in two very favorable situations when he travels to San Francisco this Sunday. Wilson is 20-11-2 ATS as a road underdog and 26-14-4 ATS when coming off a loss. This also fits our road underdogs off a loss trend.

Sun, October 3 2021, 8:05 PM

SF 49ers

Moneyline

-152

Spread

-3

Total

O 52

SEA Seahawks

Moneyline

+123

Spread

+3

Total

U 52

Another trend that favors the Seahawks here is Kyle Shanahan’s record against the spread record in games where he is favored. As the 49ers head coach, he is 8-19-1 ATS as a favorite. The Seahawks are also 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 meetings with the 49ers.

Gruden loves Monday Night Football

"Chucky" has won four consecutive games on MNF, and is 4-1 since his return to coaching. This record applies to both straight-up and against the spread.

Tue, October 5 2021, 12:15 AM

LA Chargers

Moneyline

-190

Spread

-3.5

Total

O 52

LV Raiders

Moneyline

+155

Spread

+3.5

Total

U 52

More trends to back this one up includes that the Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog and their last six games as a road underdog. The underdog is 18-6 ATS in the last 24 matchups between these two teams, and the Raiders are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Los Angeles.

McVay owns the Cardinals

Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay owns this matchup with the Cardinals and fellow young head coach, Kliff Kingsbury. He is 4-0 straight-up and against the spread in this matchup between the two coaches.

Sun, October 3 2021, 8:05 PM

LA Rams

Moneyline

-225

Spread

-4.5

Total

O 54.5

ARI Cardinals

Moneyline

+175

Spread

+4.5

Total

U 54.5

The Rams are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Cardinals, and the favorite is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings. The Cardinals are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning record, and the Rams are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against a team with a winning record.

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