NFL Betting Trends: Tom Brady owns Buffalo

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December 8th, 2021

As we enter the final stretch of the NFL season, there are plenty of juicy trends and eye-catching analytics available to make smart wagering decisions.

Let's break down the latest metrics from around the NFL, and determine the trends you should take advantage of in Week 14 and beyond.

Road underdogs after a loss

This trend has been red-hot, going 13-5 ATS over the past month. If you count the two teams that were road underdogs after a tie, then you're looking at 15-5 ATS!

Since the start of the 2019 season, road underdogs are 121-88-5 ATS after a loss. In 2021, road underdogs after a loss have a 33-24 ATS record.

In Week 14, there are eight games that fit this mold — Las Vegas at Kansas City, Jacksonville at Tennessee, Baltimore at Cleveland, Atlanta at Carolina, New York Giants at Los Angeles Chargers, San Francisco at Cincinnati, Buffalo at Tampa Bay, and Chicago at Green Bay.

This category is a moneymaker, and there are very few long-term trends you can say that about.

Who is your current pick to win Defensive Player of the Year?

A Season of Unders

Through 13 weeks, the Under is 110-83 overall, and 107-71 in non-overtime games.

In Thursday night games, the Under is 10-3. In Sunday night games, the Over is 8-5. In Monday night games, the Under is 7-6. That means non-overtime, Sunday afternoon games are 84-61-1 in favor of the Under.

Road underdogs keep improving from week to week, and are now 67-44-1 ATS through 13 weeks, so the previous trend also comes into effect here.

Free Money (If there is such a thing)

As we discussed on last week’s column, there is an intriguing trend this season that is hitting at an astounding rate. After going 46-23-1 ATS in the first 12 weeks of the season, teams that did not cover the week prior went 4-1 ATS against teams that did cover the prior week in Week 13.

That puts this trend at 50-24-1 ATS on the season, which is a 68% hit rate. You cannot get much better than that in the NFL betting world for a trend with this much of a sample size. In Week 14, there are six games that fit this mold – Minnesota at home to Pittsburgh, Las Vegas at Kansas City, Houston at home to Seattle, Denver at home to Detroit, New York Giants at Los Angeles Chargers, and Buffalo at Tampa Bay.

San Fran loves the role of underdog

Since taking over the head coaching job at San Francisco, Kyle Shanahan has disappointed when he is supposed to win (11-22-1 ATS). However, as an underdog, the 49ers are 24-17 ATS under Shanahan. They are 15-10 ATS as a road underdog.

Sun, December 12 2021, 9:25 PM

CIN Bengals






O 47.5

SF 49ers






U 47.5

The 49ers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Bengals. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last four games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games, and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a home favorite.

Brady owns Buffalo

This statement can be made about most teams in the NFL, but it especially rings true about the Buffalo Bills. Coming from New England, Tom Brady had the pleasure of playing the Bills twice a year. In his 35 career games against Buffalo, he went an incredible 32-3 straight up! Even his ATS record was impressive, going 22-12-1 in 35 games.

Sun, December 12 2021, 9:25 PM

TB Buccaneers






O 52

BUF Bills






U 52

The home team and the favorite are 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams. The Bucs have covered in four consecutive home games and are 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 games in the month of December.