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NFL Championship Sunday betting trends

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January 19th, 2021

We have reached the conference championships of the NFL playoffs, and we have a strong data set to determine trends.

Let's break down the latest metrics from around the NFL and determine the trends you should take advantage of for Championship Sunday.

'Angry Aaron' ain't done yet

Aaron Rodgers is back in a familiar spot in the NFC Championship Game.

Last year, Rodgers and the Packers were destroyed by the San Francisco 49ers in the conference title game, but that was on the road. This will be the first time in his career that Rodgers will get to host the NFC Championship Game in Green Bay.

Rodgers is 62-35-4 against the spread at Lambeau Field. He is also 7-2 ATS in his last nine playoff games and 5-0 ATS in his last five home games against teams with a winning road record (Tampa Bay is 8-2 on the road this season).

The favorite is 10-6 ATS in the last eight seasons of conference championship games. The home team is also 5-2 ATS in the last seven matchups between the Packers and Buccaneers.

Expect plenty of points at Lambeau

When most think of Green Bay in winter, wind, snow, and cold come to mind, which should hamper offense. However, these playoff games tend to have loads of points when the Packers are involved.

The Packers have played in six consecutive playoff Overs and eight consecutive Overs in the month of January. The Over is 7-1 in the last eight games following a Buccaneers ATS win and 6-1 in the last seven games where the Buccaneers were a road underdog.

Sun, January 24 2021, 8:05 PM

GB Packers

Moneyline

-195

Spread

-3.5

Total

O 50.5

TB Buccaneers

Moneyline

+155

Spread

+3.5

Total

U 50.5

Follow the money

Conventional thinking tells you the Chiefs should be favored heavily against the baby Bills on Sunday.

However, the trends say otherwise.

The Bills are 12-6 ATS this season and quarterback Josh Allen is 27-17-2 ATS in his career. Allen is even better as an underdog (14-6-2 ATS) and on the road (13-5-2 ATS). When Allen is both on the road and an underdog, he is 8-2-2 ATS.

These teams are also on opposite ends of betting streaks. The Bills are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games, while the Chiefs are 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine. The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six games in Kansas City and the road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 matchups between these two teams.

Which matchup do you want to see for Super Bowl LV?

Defense wins out

The Bills and Chiefs are known for their high-powered passing attacks, but the defenses tend to show up when they meet. The Under is 10-3 in Buffalo’s last 13 games at Kansas City. The Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings overall.

The Under is 30-12 in the Bills last 42 games as a road underdog and 5-2 in the Bills' last seven games in January. The Under is 4-1 in the Chiefs last five games as a home favorite and 7-3 in the Chiefs last 10 games against a team with a winning record.

Sun, January 24 2021, 11:40 PM

KC Chiefs

Moneyline

-157

Spread

-3

Total

O 53.5

BUF Bills

Moneyline

+128

Spread

+3

Total

U 53.5

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