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NFL Conference Championships Betting Trends: Winners also Cover

Profile Picture: Jeremy Jones

January 25th, 2022

The 2022 NFL conference championship games are upon us, and there are plenty of juicy trends and eye-catching analytics available to make smart wagering decisions.

Let's break down the latest metrics from around the league and determine the trends you should take advantage of before kickoff.

Home Teams

Since the inaugural NFC Championship Game (1970), the home team is 33-18 straight up. However, they are only 6-4 in the past 10 seasons. In that same period for the AFC Championship Game, home teams are 36-15 straight up and 8-2 in the past 10 seasons.

In the last eight seasons, the home team is 13-3 straight up and 11-5 against the spread between both conferences. In the last 19 games in which the home team was favored by less than seven points, they are 13-6 straight up and 11-8 ATS. The Over is 11-8 in those 19 games.

In the last 15 AFC Championship Games, the home team is an impressive 13-2 straight up and 10-5 ATS. Finally, in the past 17 instances in which the home team has won and covered, the Over is 13-4.

Which home team is most likely to both win and cover this weekend?

The winner almost always covers

In the last 40 conference championship games, the outright winner has covered in 37 of the 40 games! That is an incredible 92.5% hit rate.

In the history of the NFC Championship Game, the favorite has failed to cover but also won in only six instances. Four of those six times happened before the 2001 season.

In the history of the AFC Championship Game, the favorite has failed to cover but still won in only seven instances. Four of the seven were prior to the 1997 season and three were post-2007. All three of those recent games were wins by the New England Patriots.

Total Trends

The last nine conference championship games with a total of 50 points or more have a record of 6-3 favoring the Over. The AFC Championship Game is currently sitting at a total of 54.5. The Over has hit in four of the past five AFC Championship Games and three consecutive, which all involved the Chiefs.

Sun, January 30 2022, 8:00 PM

KC Chiefs

Moneyline

-360

Spread

-7

Total

O 54.5

CIN Bengals

Moneyline

+275

Spread

+7

Total

U 54.5

In the NFC Championship Game, the Over has hit in six of the past seven games. Dating back to the 1988 NFC Championship Game, when the total is higher than 46 points, the Over is an incredible 12-1.

The total currently sits at 46.5 for Sunday's game between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams. The head referee of the NFC Championship Game is Carl Cheffers, and the Over is 9-7 in his 16 games this season, if you like to follow referee trends.

Sun, January 30 2022, 11:30 PM

LA Rams

Moneyline

-186

Spread

-3.5

Total

O 46.5

SF 49ers

Moneyline

+150

Spread

+3.5

Total

U 46.5

Third time's a charm?

In the NFC Championship Game, the 49ers will meet the Rams for the third time this season and the second time in the past four weeks.

Since the division realignment in the 2002 NFL season, there have been eight instances where a team went 2-0 against the other team in the regular season and met for the third time in the playoffs.

The team that won the first two meetings in a season won the third meeting in a surprising five of the eight instances.

The three times where the team won the third meeting after losing the first two were last year’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the New Orleans Saints, the 2008 New York Giants over the Dallas Cowboys, and the 2005 Minnesota Vikings over the Green Bay Packers.

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