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NFL Divisional Round Betting Trends: Don't bet against Brady

Profile Picture: Jeremy Jones

January 19th, 2022

The 2022 NFL Divisional Round is upon us, and there are plenty of juicy trends and eye-catching analytics available to make smart wagering decisions.

Let's break down the latest metrics from around the league and determine the trends you should take advantage of before kickoff.

Saturday vs. Sunday

There are some interesting trends surrounding which day of the weekend the game falls on. Over the last 11 seasons of the NFL Divisional Round, home teams are 16-5-1 ATS on Saturdays. Since 2006, road teams are 21-8-1 ATS on Sundays in the Divisional Round.

Since 2010, the Over is 27-17 in all Divisional Round games. When you separate them by days of the weekend, you get more interesting trends. On Saturdays since 2010, the Over is 15-7. Meanwhile, on Sundays since 2010, the Over is just 12-10.

Teams rarely lose and cover

Since 2002, the outright winner of a Divisional Round game is an astounding 58-17-1 ATS. So, if you are planning to bet on an underdog hoping for a cover, but you do not expect them to win, beware.

However, an interesting trend for No. 1-seeds in the Divisional Round is that the underdog is 23-12-1 ATS against the No. 1-seed since 2004. Both No. 1-seeds get the fortune of playing a Saturday game, which has been kind to the favorites in recent years.

Which underdog is most likely to pull off the upset?

The Cincinnati Bengals are 4-1 ATS this season as road underdogs and 6-1 ATS in their last seven matchups with the Tennessee Titans. The Titans are 0-5 ATS in their last five Saturday home games. This could be an interesting spot if you are looking for a big upset.

Sat, January 22 2022, 9:30 PM

TEN Titans

Moneyline

-190

Spread

-3.5

Total

O 47

CIN Bengals

Moneyline

+155

Spread

+3.5

Total

U 47

In the other Saturday game, the San Francisco 49ers have won three consecutive playoff games against the Green Bay Packers. The combination of Kyle Shanahan and Jimmy Garoppolo is 10-2 ATS as road underdogs in their careers. However, Aaron Rodgers is 12-5-1 ATS in his career off a bye week. At home in his career, Rodgers is an amazing 69-37-4 ATS.

Sun, January 23 2022, 1:15 AM

GB Packers

Moneyline

-265

Spread

-6

Total

O 47.5

SF 49ers

Moneyline

+210

Spread

+6

Total

U 47.5

The Over is certainly a good play in this one to counteract the fact both teams have great ATS trends in this spot. We mentioned that Saturday Overs are a great play in the Divisional Round, but also these two teams have interesting trends for the Over. The Packers have played 11 straight January Overs and the 49ers have played six straight Overs against NFC North teams.

Brady loves this spot

In his historical career, Tom Brady is 13-2 straight-up in the NFL Divisional Round. Brady is 76-48-7 ATS as a favorite of seven or fewer points in any regular season game. He is 35-23-4 ATS in coin-flip games with a line of three or fewer points in either direction in the regular season. In the playoffs, Brady is 9-3 ATS in such games, covering by an average of 6.2 points in each of his last six such games.

Sun, January 23 2022, 8:00 PM

TB Buccaneers

Moneyline

-157

Spread

-3

Total

O 48.5

LA Rams

Moneyline

+128

Spread

+3

Total

U 48.5

Even though Matthew Stafford just won his first playoff game and covered the spread easily, he is 14-35-2 ATS in November or later against a team with a winning record. The Bucs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games at home on a Sunday. However, the Rams are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against Tampa Bay.

Are Mahomes and Allen the new Brady and Manning?

Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen will meet for the second consecutive season in the playoffs. These youngsters may be building a new rivalry in the AFC that could match the historic rivalry of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.

In his career, Allen is 10-5-2 ATS as a road underdog. Meanwhile, Mahomes is 9-10 ATS in his last 19 home games. However, Mahomes is 14-4-1 ATS in his career when he is a three point favorite or less.

Sun, January 23 2022, 11:30 PM

KC Chiefs

Moneyline

-129

Spread

-2

Total

O 54.5

BUF Bills

Moneyline

+106

Spread

+2

Total

U 54.5

The Bills have played eight straight Overs as underdogs and the Chiefs have played six consecutive Overs this season. In their last three playoff matchups with each other, the Over has hit every time. The Over is 8-1 in the last nine January games for Kansas City.

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