NFL odds update: 49ers Super Bowl price slashed
The Super Bowl futures market realized some dramatic shifts over Super Wild Card Weekend, as six teams advanced in “win or go home” games, while another six hopefuls were sent packing. The most noticeable swing of the weekend concerned the San Francisco 49ers, whose odds dropped from +2500 to +1100 – a reduction of over 50% – following their upset victory over the Dallas Cowboys.
Dak Prescott ran a QB draw with 14 seconds left and handed the ball to the center, who placed the ball himself.— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) January 17, 2022
However, the ref is supposed to spot the ball.
The move cost Dallas a chance at a game-winning play. The 49ers advance.
🎥 @NFL pic.twitter.com/1LifgBFDAj
Should bettors be swayed by this amount of action, or should they be looking for a better alternative? Let’s investigate.
NFL Championship 2021/2022
Sun, February 13 2022, 11:28 PM
Green Bay Packers
Kansas City Chiefs
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Los Angeles Rams
San Francisco 49ers
The case for the 49ers
The 49ers’ precipitous drop can be partially explained by the fact that they were the only underdog to advance to the Divisional Round, as the remaining games chalked out.
San Francisco was true to their identity in the Wild Card victory, as wide-out Deebo Samuel was their most productive asset on offense. Though he registered only three catches for 38 yards, he contributed another 72 yards on the ground with a touchdown on 10 carries. Elijah Mitchell was also a difference-maker in Dallas, rushing for 96 yards on 27 attempts.
Have a day Deebo!@19problemz's highlights from the Wild Card win.— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) January 17, 2022
Next up, #SFvsGB on FOX. pic.twitter.com/Pgyd36LoGq
The Niners being able to run the ball at will takes the burden off the banged-up Jimmy Garoppolo, whose ability to guide a team to a Super Bowl at full strength has been a matter of debate over the last few seasons.
San Fran’s tenacious defense was also on display on Sunday, as they dropped Dak Prescott five times.
The case against the 49ers
The other side of the coin starts with the fact that we mentioned above, which is that all the favorites except the Cowboys are still in the 49ers’ way to a Super Bowl. They are the second-longest shot on the board (only the Cincinnati Bengals are a higher price at +1400) for a reason.
San Francisco may have been fortunate to escape with a victory in Dallas, as the Cowboys committed 14 penalties, and shot themselves in the foot with Prescott’s ill-advised quarterback draw to end the game.
The Niners’ next opponent is a well-rounded Green Bay Packers squad, with presumptive MVP Aaron Rodgers at the helm and rested off a bye week.
Rams may be a better bet
The most impressive victory of Super Wild Card Weekend – at least on the NFC side – was probably the Los Angeles Rams’ 34-11 dismantling of the Arizona Cardinals.
PICK-6. TO THE HOUSE. #RAMSHOUSE.— NFL (@NFL) January 18, 2022
📺: #AZvsLAR on ABC/ESPN/ESPN2
📱: NFL app pic.twitter.com/AlWNM7Zm1B
After splitting the season series with that division rival, the Rams left no doubt who was best at SoFi Stadium on Monday night. They could do the same thing to 49ers, should they meet in the NFC Championship Game.
Getting Cam Akers back at tailback appeared to be a morale booster, as well as a boost in talent level for a team that already boasts Triple Crown-winning wide receiver Cooper Kupp. L.A.’s defense has also forced the most interceptions of any team remaining in the playoffs, tied with the Buffalo Bills at 19.
The Rams’ drop in odds from Monday to Tuesday was a much more palatable three points, from +1000 to +700.