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NFL odds update: 49ers Super Bowl price slashed

Profile Picture: Robert Criscola

January 18th, 2022

The Super Bowl futures market realized some dramatic shifts over Super Wild Card Weekend, as six teams advanced in “win or go home” games, while another six hopefuls were sent packing. The most noticeable swing of the weekend concerned the San Francisco 49ers, whose odds dropped from +2500 to +1100 – a reduction of over 50% – following their upset victory over the Dallas Cowboys.

Should bettors be swayed by this amount of action, or should they be looking for a better alternative? Let’s investigate.

NFL Championship 2021/2022

Sun, February 13 2022, 11:28 PM

Green Bay Packers

+350

Kansas City Chiefs

+400

Buffalo Bills

+500

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

+575

Los Angeles Rams

+700

Tennessee Titans

+900

San Francisco 49ers

+1100

Cincinnati Bengals

+1400

The case for the 49ers

The 49ers’ precipitous drop can be partially explained by the fact that they were the only underdog to advance to the Divisional Round, as the remaining games chalked out.

San Francisco was true to their identity in the Wild Card victory, as wide-out Deebo Samuel was their most productive asset on offense. Though he registered only three catches for 38 yards, he contributed another 72 yards on the ground with a touchdown on 10 carries. Elijah Mitchell was also a difference-maker in Dallas, rushing for 96 yards on 27 attempts.

The Niners being able to run the ball at will takes the burden off the banged-up Jimmy Garoppolo, whose ability to guide a team to a Super Bowl at full strength has been a matter of debate over the last few seasons.

San Fran’s tenacious defense was also on display on Sunday, as they dropped Dak Prescott five times.

The case against the 49ers

The other side of the coin starts with the fact that we mentioned above, which is that all the favorites except the Cowboys are still in the 49ers’ way to a Super Bowl. They are the second-longest shot on the board (only the Cincinnati Bengals are a higher price at +1400) for a reason.

San Francisco may have been fortunate to escape with a victory in Dallas, as the Cowboys committed 14 penalties, and shot themselves in the foot with Prescott’s ill-advised quarterback draw to end the game.

The Niners’ next opponent is a well-rounded Green Bay Packers squad, with presumptive MVP Aaron Rodgers at the helm and rested off a bye week.

Rams may be a better bet

The most impressive victory of Super Wild Card Weekend – at least on the NFC side – was probably the Los Angeles Rams’ 34-11 dismantling of the Arizona Cardinals.

After splitting the season series with that division rival, the Rams left no doubt who was best at SoFi Stadium on Monday night. They could do the same thing to 49ers, should they meet in the NFC Championship Game.

Getting Cam Akers back at tailback appeared to be a morale booster, as well as a boost in talent level for a team that already boasts Triple Crown-winning wide receiver Cooper Kupp. L.A.’s defense has also forced the most interceptions of any team remaining in the playoffs, tied with the Buffalo Bills at 19.

The Rams’ drop in odds from Monday to Tuesday was a much more palatable three points, from +1000 to +700.

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