NFL Week 1 Betting Situations

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TwinSpires Staff

September 4th, 2018

by Fairway Jay
Consider this a warning - NFL Week 1 sports betting is going to produce some upsets and surprising results.

Last year’s results and records tend to influence the betting market in the opening week(s) of the season, yet surprising teams emerge annually. Last year, during the 2017 season, the Jacksonville Jaguars won the AFC South and advanced to the AFC Championship game after going 3-13 SU the previous year and finishing last in the AFC South. The Philadelphia Eagles won the Super Bowl last season after going 7-9 SU the previous year and finishing last in the NFC East.

Bad teams are able to bounce back, and the contrary nature of the NFL shows surprising results throughout each season.

One simple contrary pattern that has proven quite profitable in NFL Week 1 is to play against teams that won more games than their opponent last season that is a road dog. It’s more contrary since most bettors tend to bet on the better team based on last season’s results and records, but in this case the better team with a better record last season is an underdog. Consider too that the home teams in many cases had a losing record last season and is being asked to win and cover as a favorite. That makes it more difficult for many bettors to pull the trigger on this not so lovable loser.

Three games fit this situation in NFL Week 1, and all three games have a point spread of 3-points on the home team that had a worse record than the road team last season. This situation would point you towards these road teams to play against in Week 1.

Cincinnati +3.0 at Indianapolis (Sunday, 1pm) Kansas City +3.5 at LA Chargers (Sunday, 4:05pm) Seattle +3.0 at Denver (Sunday, 4:25pm)

The match-ups and player personnel need to be evaluated, as betting all three games above shows quarterback changes for three teams. Andrew Luck returns as starter for the Indianapolis Colts after missing all of last season with an injury. The Kansas City Chiefs are starting a new quarterback in Patrick Mohomes, who makes his NFL debut against the division rival LA Chargers. The Denver Broncos also have a new quarterback as Case Keenum starts for the Broncos against Seattle after taking over for the Vikings and leading them to the NFC championship game last season after Minnesota’s starter went down with injury after Week 1.

It will be hard for many bettors to lay points in NFL Week 1 with these home teams, and even harder knowing that the three road teams also have veteran and proven winning coaches. You make the call, but recognize the contrary nature of the NFL and don’t be surprised when more losing teams from last season bounce back with improved performances and records this year.