NFL Week 10 Betting Recap - Surprises and Separation

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Jay Ginsbach

November 12th, 2018

NFL sides weren't the only struggles for public bettors this past Sunday with some solid favorites going down. I'm sure a lot of teaser bets were blown up. Let's review the action in my NFL Week 10 betting recap, starting with last night's debacle.

Public Was With Eagles

Bettors that rolled their parlays and teaser bets to the Philadelphia Eagles Sunday night were crushed by the Dallas Cowboys, who shot down the defending champs and left Philly with a 27-20 win. The Cowboys had 410 yards of offense in victory just a week following their Monday night meltdown at home versus Tennessee. The bounce back was led by RB Ezekiel Elliott, who rushed for 151 yards on 19 carries with both a rushing and receiving touchdown.

The betting was big on the Eagles, and for obvious reasons. They were coming off a bye week, while their opponent was coming off an embarrassing loss at the hands of the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night Football the week prior. Everybody and their grandmother was essentially riding the Eagles on Sunday night as they followed the momentum, but Dallas was able to claw back and pick up their first win in six games.

AFC East Gets Rocked in Week 10

The popular New England Patriots (-7) were blasted on the road at Tennessee, as the Titans jumped out to a 17-3 first quarter lead and never looked back in a 34-10 point-of-attack pounding of the Patriots. The Tennessee Titans rushed the ball 36 times for 150 yards and held New England to 40 yards rushing and 284 total yards at just 4.4 yards per play. No harm for New England in the AFC East race, as the weakest division in pro football has the Patriots still holding a 2-game lead over Miami after the Dolphins were sunk later in the day at Green Bay 31-12.

Miami was held to just 294 yards of offense. The Green Bay Packers was bet up on game day from -10.0 to -12.5, so the sportsbook took a hit with the public and wise guys getting some money back from early afternoon results.

The NFL Week 10  betting recap wouldn't be complete without mentioning how popular of a teaser play the Patriots were prior to kick-off. The Jets (-7), who were blasted by the Buffalo Bills 41-10, also fell in to that category. That was with QB Matt Barkley making his starting debut for the Bills less than two weeks after joining the team. Buffalo had a stampede going on the ground with 46 carries for 212 yards led by LeSean McCoy’s 113 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Bills and Jets are both 3-7 in the basement of the AFC East with no shot at the playoffs heading into Week 11. New York head coach Todd Bowles is updating his resume and will likely be out of New York in less than two months.

Bengals Buried By Saints

Defensive coordinator Teyrl Austin has been fired after the Cincinnati Bengals set a futility record allowing more than 500 yards for the third straight game. The Bengals (5-4), off their bye, look unprepared as the high-flying Saints (8-1) buried them in Cincinnati 51-14, racking up a balanced 509 yards offense with 244 rushing yards on a week-high 47 attempts. New Orleans continues to establish themselves as the best in the NFC.

Atlanta A Wary Road Play

The Patriots were joined by the Atlanta Falcons (-6) as two of the most heavily bet teams in Week 10 action. And Atlanta (4-5) also buried many bettors as the Browns (3-6-1) took a 14-10 halftime lead and then extended it to 28-10 in the fourth quarter in a 28-16 win at Cleveland. Another dominant, balanced attack with 211 yards rushing and 216 yards passing for the Browns, who averaged a strong 8.5 yards per play with QB Baker Mayfield completing 17-of-20 passes and 3 touchdowns.

Rams, Chiefs (Barely) Stay on Top

Separation Sunday also featured the two teams with the best records failing to cover big point spreads. Kansas City (9-1) and the Los Angeles Rams (9-1) both won but got strong challenges in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs (-16) needed a Spencer Ware touchdown run early in the fourth quarter to separate from the Arizona Cardinals in a 26-14 win. The Chiefs had 330 yards offense, well below their season average of 423.1 yards per game, but the Cardinals managed just 260 yards at a paltry 3.8 yards per play.

The Rams rematch with the Seahawks was nearly an identical score as the Week 5 contest, and Seattle covered again in a 36-31 Rams win. Los Angeles was a 9.5 point favorite but more tickets and money was on Seattle, who had 414 yards at 6.5 yards per play in defeat with a week high 273 rushing yards. The Rams were too strong again with 456 yards at 7.1 yards per play.

The Best of the Rest

Two other favorites that won and covered were Chicago (-7) in the Bears' 34-22 win over Detroit, who could not overcome three turnovers in defeat.

The LA Chargers (-10) had a grinding division game with Oakland, whose futility continued in a 20-6 loss. The Chargers (7-2) are going strong and chasing the Chiefs in the AFC West while the Raiders (1-8) have the worst record in football and have also lost bettors the most money at 2-7 ATS.

The ugly game of the day was in Tampa Bay (-3), who had 501 yards total offense and scored just 3 points. How is that possible? Six turnovers were the culprit in a 16-3 loss to Washington (6-3), who is the surprising leader in the NFC East and got help Sunday night when Dallas (4-5) beat Philadelphia (4-5), sending the Super Bowl champion Eagles further behind in the division and playoff chase.

The Indianapolis Colts held off a late Jaguars drive and recovered a fumble to preserve a 29-26 win as 3-point home favorites. A majority of bettors pushed, as last year’s AFC South champion Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6) are now in last place while Indianapolis (4-5) won its third straight game and has another division tangle with Tennessee in Week 11.

Pittsburgh (-3.5) crushed Carolina 52-21 Thursday night as the Steelers (6-2-1) won their fifth straight game and have covered the point spread in all five contests. Week 11 is a Pittsburgh playoff redemption rematch at Jacksonville.

Week 10 favorites went 8-5 SU but 5-7-1 ATS with Monday night’s 49ers-Giants game pending.

Fairway Jay is a professional handicapper based out of Las Vegas. He focuses primarily on the four majors along with college football and college basketball. You can follow him on Twitter @FairwayJay.