NFL Week 10 Monday Night Football Betting Free Pick - NYG at SF

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D.S. Williamson

November 10th, 2018

NFL WEEK 10 MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL BETTING New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers Monday, November 12th – Levi’s Stadium– 8:20pm ET Odds: 49ers -3.5 (44)

When the NFL schedulers set Week 10’s Monday battle between the Giants and 49ers, they thought NFL fans might be treated to a top notch quarterback duel between Eli Manning and San Francisco’s Jimmy Garoppolo. We all know that won’t be the case on Nov. 12.

Manning hasn’t come close to performing the way a two-time Super Bowl Champion should while Garoppolo got hurt early in the season. If you’re a San Francisco fan, there’s a reason for you to tune in, because last Thursday 49ers quarterback Nick Mullens destroyed the Oakland Raiders in his first ever start at the pro level. Mullens, an undrafted second-year player, threw for 262 yards and 3 touchdowns on just 16-of-22 attempts in a mind blowing debut.

If you’re a Giants fan, maybe you tune in to see how your NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate plays. Saquon Barkley might be the lone reason for Giants fans to watch the game.

However, that’s the beauty of being an NFL handicapper instead of just an NFL fan. No matter the level of play, no matter if it’s a game between two losing teams, drama exists because one team covers the spread and the other team doesn’t. One team wins on the moneyline and the other doesn’t.

Which team will it be in NFL Week 10 Monday Night Football betting, and which is the best wager to make?

Are the Giants Tanking?

Before answering that question, it’s important to ask a couple of other questions. In regards to the New York Giants, have they mailed in the rest of the season already?

New York traded cornerback Eli Apple to the Saints and defensive tackle Damon “Snacks” Harrison to the Lions. Both were big contributors to a defense that needed as many contributors as it could get.

Apple, especially, had a bright future after putting a strange, almost comical, 2017 season behind him. Harrison might have been a cap casualty because he was due to make a boatload, $7 million in 2019 and over $9 million in 2020. The Giants are stronger along the defensive line than they are in the secondary, which makes Apple’s departure the more difficult one to absorb.

But, trading those two defensive players isn’t the only reason to believe New York has given up on the season. Other than trading those players away, the Giants haven't truly shown a definitive interest in doing anything despite a brutal, 1-7 SU start.

They continue to hand the ball to the electrifying Barkley before allowing Eli and the offense to make a mistake in the red zone. They continue to play the same strategy on defense even though it’s only worked once this season, way back in Week 3 when they somehow beat Houston.

It’s not easy to secure the first pick in the NFL Draft, and that looming thought hangs directly overhead of this Week 10 Monday Night Football matchup. Right now, the Giants are in a tie with the Oakland Raiders. Don’t be surprised if the strategy really is to tank the rest of the season so that they can get the first pick over Reggie McKenzie and Jon Gruden.

Is 49ers’ Quarterback Nick Mullens a Mirage?

In his first start, former Mississippi State quarterback Nick Mullens threw for a 151.9 quarterback rating and set the world on fire with his play.

Sounds great until we realize that Mullens did this against a Raiders team that’s absolutely going through the motions for the rest of the season. The Raiders haven’t won a game since a lucky play led to the 45-42 win over Cleveland in Week 4.

It’s hard to say Mullens is a mirage because he played so well, but we can’t anoint him the next Steve Young either. The Giants' defense will test Mullens more than Oakland’s did just because of safety Landon Collins. Collins might blitz more than he usually does to upset Mullens' rhythm.

If he does, and if the Giants want to win, Mullens could turn into that oasis in the desert that dries up the closer you get to it. He shouldn’t complete 72% of his passes again.

Week 10 Monday Night Football Betting Analysis

This game hasn’t drawn much interest and it’s impossible to handicap based on stats. Nick Mullens only played a single game in his career while there’s a good chance the Giants are planning for next season.

This is an NFL trend handicapping matchup. Based on trends, the Giants should cover. Although San Francisco is 26-6 ATS in their last 32 games on Monday night, the Giants are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 following an ATS loss, and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after scoring less than 15 points in their previous.

Just because the front office wants to mail in the rest of the season, it doesn’t mean players like Landon Collins and Saquon Barkley do. The Giants could beat the 49ers straight up even though it’s not the intention because San Fran simply doesn’t have the explosive firepower that New York does. This is a game where Nick Mullens can - and will - come back down to earth.

I’m going Giants’ moneyline.

NFL Week 10 Monday Night Football Betting Free Pick: NYG +150