NFL Week 10 Picks - Sunday's Best Matchups

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D.S. Williamson

November 9th, 2018

The L.A. Rams attempt to prevent a 2-game slide as huge home favorites in NFL Week 10 picks on Sunday. New Orleans beat Los Angeles 45-35 in Week 9. That game was important, but the Rams battle NFC South Division foe Seattle in NFL Week 10 with just as much on the line. Another loss and the Rams suddenly find themselves in auspicious territory.

The other big game on Sunday takes place in the AFC where New England (7-2) battles  Tennessee (3-4). The Titans finally got their offense on track this past Monday night when they beat the Dallas Cowboys 28-14. Tennessee believes it’s one of the elite teams in the conference. It will be hard to argue with the Titans and their fans if they pull off the home upset victory against the best team in the AFC.

The final game that should pique everyone’s interest has the Arizona Cardinals traveling to Kansas City to beat the Chiefs. Although it looks like KC won’t have an issue beating Arizona straight up, Chiefs backers have to lay 16.5 points. That’s close to what Minnesota backers laid  when they played (and lost to) the Bills. Buffalo provided the third greatest moneyline upset in NFL history, which proves that no game in the NFL’s a foregone conclusion.

So let's dive in to the slate and see where I landed with my NFL Week 10 picks!

Sunday, Nov. 11

Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3

Tampa’s riding the Fitzmagic train from now until the end of the season...and the overproducing, backup starting at quarterback might be the reason everyone’s so excited about the Buccaneers. I get it - he's put up ridiculous numbers, but I still can't get past the idea of this team's defense. The trends are also sternly against the Bucs, who are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games. Washington’s 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 yards in their previous. Washington should beat Tampa Bay on the moneyline and provide a big bounce back effort after being shellacked by Atlanta.

NFL Week 10 Picks: Redskins +130  

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears -6.5

I’m not sure what to make of this spread. Chicago has won two in a row, but look who they beat:The New York Jets and the Buffalo Bills. Detroit’s a massive step up. Not only that, but Detroit is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games versus a team with a winning home record. A lot of people are waving the white flag on the Lions after the Golden Tate trade, and it's easy to buy in on the Bears because they're good at everything. But there's life in these Lions and I'm willing to take a risk with them.

NFL Week 10 Picks: Lions +6.5

Arizona Cardinals at Kansas City Chiefs -16.5

If you handicap this one based on trends, Kansas City blows out the Cardinals by at least 3 touchdowns. The spread worries me, though, which is why I found a couple of reasons to take the points and back Arizona. First, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has thrown an interception in every game since Week 5. Second, Zona heads into this battle off a bye, giving new offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich more time to curate a personnel that is talented enough to produce in a much cleaner scheme. Those aren’t mind-blowing things to base a bet on, but I am getting 16.5 points, so, Arizona’s the play.

NFL Week 10 Picks: Cardinals +16.5

Atlanta Falcons -4 at Cleveland Browns

Coach Gregg Williams likes to take chances. He blitzes a lot, which is why the Browns have been  burned for 423.9 total yards per game. He’ll take plenty of risks against Atlanta - he doesn’t know how to coach any other way - which means Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan can further his NFL MVP case.

NFL Week 10 Picks: Falcons -4

New Orleans Saints -5.5 at Cincinnati Bengals

The Saints are on a major roll, winning 7 in a row both SU and ATS. If that wasn’t enough reason to back New Orleans, Cincinnati’s defense is a mess, ranking 30th in points allowed and 32nd in total yards allowed.

NFL Week 10 Picks: Saints -5.5

New England Patriots -6.5 at Tennessee Titans

Since Week 4 on, New England has been great, winning 6 straight and covering in 5-of-6. No wonder most NFL handicappers back the Patriots. But, the Titans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 on grass, and 10-3 ATS versus a team with a winning record.

NFL Week 10 Picks: Titans +6.5

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts -3

Too many positive trends follow the Jacksonville Jaguars into this game for me to even consider backing Indianapolis. The Jags are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 after a bye, 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Indianapolis, and 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Jags are also the best team in the NFL at passing yards allowed while Indianapolis relies almost exclusively on quarterback Andrew Luck. Marlon Mack has been a nice surprise, but I'm not giving up on Jacksonville just yet. The Jaguars win this straight up.

NFL Week 10 Picks: Jaguars +125 ML

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets -7

Even if Bills quarterback Josh Allen plays, the Jets should cover. Buffalo only averages 10.7 points. How many more points is Allen good for? A full touchdown? It won’t matter because Buffalo is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games after a double-digit home loss while the home team in this rivalry is 5-1 ATS in the last 6. The Jets should blow out the Bills on Sunday.

NFL Week 10 Picks: New York Jets -7

L.A. Chargers -10 at Oakland Raiders

Chargers versus Raiders is supposed to be one of the more entertaining rivalry games in the NFL. Unfortunately, Oakland might be the worst team in the league after the continued gutting at the hands of GM Reggie McKenzie and coach Jon Gruden. Just this past week, the butcher's knife came out for defensive captain Bruce Irvin. The Raiders are thinking about next season. Los Angeles believes it can win a Super Bowl this year. Ten points isn’t a lot to lay based on those two facts alone.

NFL Week 10 Picks: LAC -10

Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers -10

The spread’s gone up a full 3 points from Green Bay’s -7 opening line. Here’s another game where it’s hard to see why the line’s moved. Miami is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. Green Bay’s an awful 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games. The Dolphins should cover.

NFL Week 10 Picks: Dolphins +10

Seattle Seahawks at L.A. Rams -10

Most feel the Rams bounce back from their first loss of the season by dominating the rival Seahawks. I’m putting more emphasis on the trends:  LAR is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after accumulating more than 30 points in their previous game while the Seahawks are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 following an ATS loss and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 10. Seattle covers. I'm not overthinking this one and placing some faith in Russell Wilson.

NFL Week 10 Picks: Seahawks +10