NFL Week 10 Sunday Night Betting - Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles

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D.S. Williamson

November 9th, 2018


Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles Sunday, November 11th – Lincoln Financial Field – 8:20pm ET Odds: Eagles -7 (43)

Defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia hopes to get above .500 with a win over rival Dallas in NFL Week 10 Sunday Night betting as they come off a bye week. The Eagles won 2-of-3 before their break, which included beating Jacksonville 24-18 at Wembley, and believe they can overtake division leading Washington. The rival Cowboys have to hope that there’s enough games left to also make a move for the division title, but are coming off a character-questioning loss to the Titans on Monday night. Both teams have struggled, which means there’s more at stake in this game than just a “W”.

The team that wins could put itself on the path for the NFC East while the team that loses might want to consider planning for next season. Jason Garrett's seat at the table has never been hotter despite being the longest tenured coach in Cowboys’ history after the great Tom Landry. Garret has to motivate his troops to save his job. Simple as that.

Will the Cowboys step it up for Garrett, or will it be business as usual with the Eagles sending Dallas home with their fifth loss of the season?  Let's discuss in my NFL Week 10 Sunday Night betting preview!

Dallas Hopes Offense Gets Going

After their week off, the Dallas Cowboys were supposed to showcase a brand new offense starring Amari Cooper, who opened up the scoring against Tennessee with a 4-yard TD pass from Dak Prescott. Overall, Cooper had a decent game, but he by no means turned around the offense.  Cooper caught 5-of-8 for 58 yards, but he failed to make more of an impact on the scoreboard save for the initial touchdown. What’s worse is that Dallas running back Ezekiel Elliott only carried 17 times for 61 yards and was routinely gang tackled by the Titans.

How much can Dallas really do to prepare with the spotlight overhead and past alumni like Troy Aikman screaming for an organizational overhaul? There's just a feeling of desperation in Dallas, especially with the guillotine glistening over Garrett's head. He is a questionable signal caller, but the compilation of this team isn't entirely his fault.

As usual, this roster has Jerry Jones' fingerprints all over it. He's the one that pulled the trigger on Dak Prescott, Zeke Elliott and now Amari Cooper. But he's also the owner, so the axe is going to fall on Garrett if the coach isn't able to produce a victory. Dallas fans have clamored for Garrett to get his walking papers for a while now, but the ever-patient Jones has stuck by him. Now, more than ever, the clock on Garrett's tenure is ticking louder and louder. The presence of that pressure alone is moving the betting line in this game.

To Cover Spread, Eagles Must Play a Complete Game

Like Dallas, the Eagles have also had trouble scoring points this season. Philadelphia averages 22.2, which is much less than what they averaged during last season’s Super Bowl run. Philly dominated and overwhelmed opponents in 2017.

In 2018, they can barely score enough to get the win. The long-term season outlook could start looking up starting in Week 10 Sunday Night betting. If they can find a rushing attack to complement Carson Wentz, they’ll put up more than their average against a Dallas defense that will be without Sean Lee (hamstring) again. The star linebacker is expected to miss the bulk of the regular season.

Unlike the Cowboys, the Eagles’ issues on offense aren’t systematic. It’s a question of playing a complete four quarters instead of performing well in spots, like when they lost to Carolina despite a 17-point lead in the fourth leg of the game.

Betting this line depends on which Philadelphia team you think shows up: the one that hammered Jacksonville, or the team that let up against Carolina. Pederson has likely pressed the right buttons during his bye week with the team, making Philly a probable play to cover this Week 10 Sunday Night betting line by most estimations.

That, however, might be too simplistic of a viewpoint.

Week 10 Sunday Night Betting Analysis

Most NFL handicappers believe that the Eagles will handle the Cowboys on Sunday night. The line opened PHI -5.5 and went up 1.5 points to where it is now. Action is flowing in steadily on Philadelphia.

To most bettors, Philadelphia feels like the more stable team. Surprisingly, the trends say the opposite. Philadelphia is 2-5 ATS in their last 7, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous, and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an SU win.

Floating Dallas backers (outside of their fandom) is that the team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus the NFC East and 5-1 ATS in the last 6 in Philadelphia. The road team in this rivalry is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 as well.

You also have to consider that pride will be on the line for Dallas. It's easy to think that a dead man walking is just going to crumble when he bumps in to something, but there's only one way to gain ground when your back is against the wall. The Cowboys will have to fight if they're going to survive, and they have the personnel to give the Eagles a run for their money.

The talk all week has been about the downtrodden state of the Dallas Cowboys, and how their franchise is falling apart, and that's caused people to overreact to the line. This is not easy sledding for the Cowboys, but they've never been a team to go quietly in to the night. And if we've learned anything about this division over the course of the 2018 campaign, it's that there's no such thing as a sure thing. Philadelphia limped in to their bye week by beating up a disjointed Jaguars team that is in complete disarray. That should not invigorate the public to feverishly back the Eagles, but people tend to have short-term memories when it comes to the NFL season.

So I'm going against the grain in this one. Dallas is not going to lie down and Philadelphia's secondary ranks 25th in the league. The Eagles are only holding a +2.7 point differential this season anyways. By no means do I think Dallas is a safe bet, and a cover won't get Garrett off the hot seat, but I can't back Philly with confidence against that many points.

NFL Week 10 Sunday Night Betting Free Pick: Cowboys +7