NFL Week 11 Betting Guide

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November 11th, 2019

All eyes will be on Baltimore this Sunday as Lamar Jackson and the red-hot Ravens put their five-game winning streak on the line against the Houston Texans. It’s shaping up to be a battle royale against two of the AFC’s most explosive teams.

We have odds and analysis for that grudge match as well as all of the biggest Week 11 trends and storylines from around the National Football League.

Visit BetAmerica to wager on all NFL Week 11 action. 


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Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson further boosted his MVP chances in Week 10, with a show-stopping performance against the 0-9 Bengals.

Jackson achieved his second perfect passer rating of the season (his first came against the Dolphins in Week 1) on 15-of-17 passing for 223 yards and four total touchdowns. He also led the Ravens in rushing, with 65 yards on seven carries in the Ravens' 49-13 pounding of Cincinnati.

On Sunday, the leader of the AFC North welcomes the No. 1 team in the AFC South and fellow MVP candidate Deshaun Watson.

Houston sat out on bye in Week 10 but boasts a two-game win streak. The Texans last defeated Jacksonville 26-3 in London and nearly edged out Oakland, 27-24. In the drubbing of the Jaguars, Watson completed 22 of 28 passes for 201 yards and two touchdowns, while Carlos Hyde totaled 160 yards on 19 carries.

Houston amassed 417 yards of offense and held the Jaguars to 383, including just 74 on the ground. The defense also intercepted Gardner Minshew twice and sacked the rookie three times.

The Texans feature the No. 3 rushing defense in the league and meet with the Ravens' No. 1 rushing offense on Sunday. Baltimore averages 197.2 yards on the ground and 5.5 per carry, but puts up just 224.4 yards per game passing (20th in the NFL).

The Texans, meanwhile, possess a more balanced offensive attack and rank 12th in passing and 10th in rushing.

In the last five games between these two franchises, the Texans are 4-1 against the spread and are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. The Ravens are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.

Bet on Houston vs. Baltimore here.

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New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The New Orleans Saints may have overlooked longtime rival Atlanta on Sunday due to the Falcons’ abysmal 1-7 record.

The Saints left the Superdome with loss No. 2 of the season as a result, as the Falcons improved to 2-7 and made Drew Brees and his offensive line look pathetic.

Brees got sacked six times for a loss of 46 yards and failed to record a touchdown in Sunday’s 26-9 defeat. New Orleans’ only points came off three field goals from Wil Lutz, as the Saints offense stalled and the ground game practically disappeared.
In Alvin Kamara’s first game back from injury, he carried the ball only four times for 24 yards but caught eight passes for 50. Latavius Murray also notched just five carries and converted those attempts into 12 yards of offense.

On Sunday, the Saints visit 3-6 Tampa Bay for another NFC South showdown. The Buccaneers snapped a four-game losing streak in Sunday’s 30-27 thriller against Arizona, despite Jameis Winston tossing two interceptions and getting sacked four times.

The Bucs already faced the Saints in Week 5 and left New Orleans with a 31-24 loss, as Saints backup Teddy Bridgewater led his team with four touchdown passes.

This time the league’s worst passing defense gets a matchup with Drew Brees. The one advantage the Bucs own is the No. 1 rushing defense, which may create more issues for Kamara and Murray.

The Saints are five-point road favorites, though the home team is 5-2 against the spread in the last seven meetings between these two teams. The Bucs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall and 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.

Bet on New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay here.

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New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The New England Patriots enjoyed a week of rest and a chance to regroup following their first loss of the season to the Ravens in Week 9.

On Sunday, the Patriots head to Philly, also fresh off a bye, and look to break the 5-4 Eagles’ two-win streak. Philly is the next of four difficult teams in line to play the Patriots, who fed off weak opponents in the first half of the season.
The Eagles are decent against the pass but rank fourth against the run and should cause the Pats trouble as they continue to search for their identity on offense.

To the Patriots’ advantage, though, Carson Wentz and his receivers generate just 219.7 yards per game through the air. The Pats D gives up the second-fewest passing yards per game, at 150.2.

The Eagles are a better team on the ground, both on offense and defense. If they can break through the Pats’ defensive line like the Ravens did, Philly could stun the Patriots, just as it did in 2017.

Philly and New England haven’t faced each other in a regular-season or playoff game since the Eagles defeated the Patriots, 41-33, in Super Bowl LII. The road team is 4-0 against the spread in the last four meetings between the Patriots and Eagles, but New England is just 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings overall.

Bet on New England vs. Philadelphia here.

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns

Thursday, November 14, 8:20 p.m. ET | FirstEnergy Stadium

The Pittsburgh Steelers have flipped the script on a season nearly ravaged by injuries and enter Week 11 on a four-game win streak.

Since dropping three of their first four, the Steelers and backup Mason Rudolph have found their stride and proved so against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday.

In the 17-12 triumph, Rudolph passed for 242 yards and one score, while the defense held the Rams to just 88 rushing yards and 243 yards through the air.

Jared Goff fumbled three times and lost one returned for a touchdown—though, the “fumble” looked more like an incomplete pass. Still, the Steelers D-line caused plenty of pressure on the Rams quarterback and sacked him four times for a loss of 25 yards.
The Steelers should shoulder plenty of confidence ahead of Sunday’s matchup with Cleveland. The 3-6 Browns finally earned a win on Sunday over the Buffalo Bills after dropping the last four to the 49ers, Seahawks, Patriots and Broncos.

In the 19-16 rout of the Bills, Baker Mayfield accounted for 238 passing yards and two touchdowns, as Nick Chubb gathered another 116 yards rushing. The Browns defense also held Buffalo to 84 yards on the ground but let quarterback Josh Allen run for two scores.

The Bills had a chance to tie the game with 22 seconds remaining, but Stephen Hauschka missed his second field goal of the day, and the Bills fell to 6-3.

The Browns sit in third in the AFC North, behind the Steelers and the first-place Ravens. Cleveland has come up far short of expectations in 2019, but the remaining schedule provides them a chance for redemption.

The Browns get the Dolphins next, before meeting Pittsburgh once again in Week 13. Cincinnati is up twice on the schedule after that, plus a road trip to Arizona and a home slate against Baltimore.

The Browns desperately need a win over Pittsburgh on Sunday and are favored by just 2.5 at home. Since 2015, Cleveland is 1-8-1 straight up in the last 10 meetings with the Steelers, but Pittsburgh is 1-3-1 against the spread in the last five. The home team is also 3-1-1 ATS in the last five.

Bet on Pittsburgh vs. Cleveland here.

Chicago Bears vs. Los Angeles Rams

Sunday, November 17, 8:20 p.m. ET | LA Coliseum

The Chicago Bears snapped a four-game losing streak on Sunday in a home clash with NFC North rival Detroit. Bears quarterback Mitch Trubisky played his best game of the season—quieting the criticism and doubt surrounding him, if ever so briefly—as he completed nearly 70 percent of his passes for 173 yards and three scores.

The Bears defense unexpectedly squared up against backup Jeff Driskel, after Detroit ruled out Matt Stafford hours before the game due to fractured bones in his back. Driskel and the depleted Lions rushing attack struggled against the Bears D in the first half, but a touchdown pass to Kenny Golladay brought the score within seven with under six minutes to play.

Detroit nearly pulled off a late comeback but turned the ball over on downs as time expired, giving Chicago a 20-13 victory.

The Bears head to Los Angeles on Sunday in hopes of fashioning a win streak, but the 5-4 Rams need a W just as badly. On Sunday, Los Angeles made a trip to Heinz Field and dropped its fourth game of the season against a now-5-4 Steelers squad.

Jared Goff connected on 22 of 41 passes for 243 yards and got picked off twice, in addition to getting sacked four times and losing a fumble. The LA run game sputtered once more, as Todd Gurley led the team with 73 yards on 12 carries, and Malcolm Brown added 10 more on five attempts.

The Rams defense also prevented the Steelers from doing much work on the ground, but Mason Rudolph racked up 242 yards and one score, and Minkah Fitzpatrick added six more points on a fumble return.

Los Angeles’ 12 points came off of a Dante Fowler fumble return for a touchdown, a Greg Zuerlein field goal and a safety in the fourth quarter. Last year’s Super Bowl runner-up has seemed like a completely different team in 2019, and the upcoming schedule should give the Rams more concern.

The Rams are favored by 5.5 in Sunday night’s matchup, but the trends side with Chicago. The Bears beat Los Angeles in last year’s meeting, 15-6, and are 7-2 against the spread in the last nine against the Rams. Chicago is also 4-1 ATS in the last five at Los Angeles.

Bet on Chicago vs. Los Angeles here.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Monday, November 18, 8:15 p.m. ET | Estadio Azteca

For the fourth time in league history, two franchises head to Mexico City as part of the NFL International Series.

The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers are both searching for a win after falling flat in their final drives in their Week 10 road games. Patrick Mahomes reclaimed the starting position after sitting out from a dislocated knee and looked like his old self, as he threw for 446 yards and three scores in Kansas City’s 35-32 defeat.

Nonetheless, the defense once again made it far too easy for its opponent to run up and down the field. Tennessee’s Derrick Henry accumulated 188 yards and two touchdowns, while quarterback Ryan Tannehill ran for another 37 and carried the ball into the end zone on a two-point conversion with 23 seconds left in the game.

The Chiefs had a chance to tie the score on a field goal to end regulation, but cornerback Joshua Kalu blocked Harrison Butker’s kick. On the Chiefs’ previous drive, Butker had another opportunity to sink a field goal, but a bad snap led to holder Dustin Colquitt chucking the ball for an intentional grounding call.

The Chiefs now own a 6-4 record and face an erratic 4-6 Chargers squad. On Thursday night, Los Angeles visited the Oakland Raiders and had the game in its hands on the last possession, but Philip Rivers couldn’t get the ball in field-goal range for a game-winning kick.

Rivers completed 17 of 31 passes for 207 yards, two scores and three interceptions. Melvin Gordon hit the 100-yard rushing mark for the first time this season and tallied a touchdown, but it wasn’t enough in the Chargers’ 26-24 loss.

The Chargers defeated the Chiefs, 29-28, the last time these AFC West conference mates met in 2018, but Los Angeles is 1-9 straight up against Kansas City since 2014.

The Chiefs are four-point favorites and 4-1 against the spread in the last five meetings with the Chargers.

Bet on Kansas City vs Los Angeles here.

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NFL Betting Trends

  • Home favorites have won just 60% of their games SU in 2019. By contrast, road favorites have won 63% of their games SU
  • Road teams have won 56% of their games ATS in 2019. Road dogs have fared even better, winning 61% of their games ATS in 2019
  • 53% of all non-overtime games have gone Under the projected point total in 2019
  • The Cardinals and Packers have been the NFL's two most reliable teams against the spread in 2019, covering 70% of the time
  • The Buccaneers have covered just 22% of the time ATS in 2019
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NFL Week 11 Schedule

Cancel all your plans this Sunday. Seriously, you won't be going anywhere.

Steelers vs. Browns
Thu, November 14 @8:20 PM
CLE -2.5
Falcons vs. Panthers
Sun, November 17 @1PM
CAR -6.5
Cowboys vs. Lions
Sun, November 17 @1PM
Jaguars vs. Colts
Sun, November 17 @1PM
IND -3
Bills vs. Dolphins
Sun, November 17 @1PM
MIA +6.5
Texans vs. Ravens
Sun, November 17 @1PM
BAL -4.5
Broncos vs. Vikings
Sun, November 17 @1PM
MIN -9.5
Jets vs. Redskins
Sun, November 17 @1PM
WAS -1
Saints vs. Buccaneers
Sun, November 17 @1PM
TB +5
Cardinals vs. 49ers
Sun, November 17 @4:05PM
SF -13.5
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Get to Know Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry ran for 188 yards on Sunday in the Titans' impressive 35-32 win over the Chiefs. Here are three things you should know about Tennessee's unstoppable RB:

  • To say that Henry ran over the competition in high school would be putting it mildly. The Yulee High School grad ran for 4,261 yards and 55 touchdowns in his senior season and finished his high school career with a record-setting 12,124 rushing yards.
  • Henry attended Alabama where he made history again in 2015 by becoming just the fourth running back ever to win the Heisman Trophy and a national championship in the same season.
  • In 2018 Henry became just the second player in NFL history to record a 99-yard rushing touchdown. His historic TD came against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
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NFL Audibles

Jalen Ramsay may have had a lot to say to JuJu Smith-Schuster on Sunday, but the Steelers had the last word as they pulled out a gutsy 17-12 win over the Rams.

Is Adam Vinatieri's Hall of Fame career coming to an end? Colts head coach Frank Reich didn't exactly give his kicker a ringing endorsement following Sunday's disastrous 16-12 loss to the 2-7 Dolphins.

Giants RB Saquon Barkley had reason to feel frustrated on Sunday after rushing for just 1 yard on 13 carries in New York's embarrassing 34-27 loss to the Jets.
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Three and Out

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray established a new rookie record on Sunday by completing his 177th pass attempt without an interception. Here are three other NFL rookie QB records you should know about:

  • Cowboys signal caller Dak Prescott established the highest passer rating for an NFL rookie QB in 2016 with a 104.9 mark. Murray currently has a passer rating of 90.2.
  • Former Colts field general Andrew Luck set the rookie record for most pass attempts in a season in 2012 with 627. Murray, meanwhile, has attempted 360 passes over his first 10 games.
  • Browns QB Baker Mayfield set the record for most passing touchdowns by a rookie in 2018 with 27. As impressive as Murray has been, the Oklahoma product has thrown for just 12 touchdowns so far in 2019.

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