NFL Week 11 Betting – Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

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Jay Ginsbach

November 16th, 2018

The Colts opened a 3-point favorite, but with bettors continually hitting the Tennessee Titans during the week, the number has dipped to 1.5 with the Titans taking better than 2 out of every 3 bets. We’ve ridden the Titans to victory the last two weeks with Tennessee beating both Dallas and New England as an underdog. The Titans have covered their last three games overall, and all five of their wins have been as a dog. But I'm changing course and clubs this week while selecting the Colts in this AFC South showdown.

Tennessee Titans (5-4) at Indianapolis Colts (4-5) Sunday, November 18th – Lucas Oil Stadium – 1:00pm ET Week 11 Betting Line: Indianapolis -1.5 (49)

This game is a direct contrast in styles, and one of the easiest ways to back your bet when it's a confusing matchup is to go with the best player on the field. Colts QB Andrew Luck is on his way to Comeback Player of the Year honors, and he’s led the Colts to three straight wins. Indy has scored 29 or more points in four straight games. While they have faced a lineup of losers over that stretch, I still like Luck to make the plays against a strong Titans defense. Luck has thrown 26 touchdown passes with 66.3% completions for 2,472 yards this year.

Both teams are rushing the ball with equal force. The Tennessee Titans have pounded the rock all year with varying success, averaging 114.4, while the Colts and Marlon Mack have cruised to a 113.6 average themselves. But the Titans 3.9 yards per rush is bottom five in the league. The Colts run defense is better than league average allowing 107.8 rushing yards per game and 3.9 yards per rush to rank top-7 in the league; same as the Titans.

Tennessee’s defense is better overall allowing 328.0 yards per game to rank top-6 in the league. The Titans pass defense is top-10 allowing 6.8 yards per pass, and they’ve allowed 7.6 yards per pass over their last three games. That's a dangerous trend given that they have to play Andrew Luck, who has an uncanny ability to read defenses and anticipate throws, making him a tougher challenge for the Tennessee Titans this week. Luck's connection with leading receiver TE Eric Ebron has been dangerous in the red zone with Ebron catching 9 touchdown passes.

Titans QB Marcus Mariota was dealing with a nerve injury earlier in the season and has played better since Tennessee’s bye, passing for 8.3 and 9.5 yards per pass in two victories over the Cowboys and Patriots with a 4-0 TD-to-INT ratio. However, Mariota only has 7 touchdown passes to 5 interceptions this season, and the former Heisman winner will have to pass for more than 220 yards this week to beat the Colts.

Tennessee beat division opponents Houston and at Jacksonville in September, and first year head coach Mike Vrabel has done a decent job of putting the Titans in a position to steal the division. But I'll gladly go against him and take Indianapolis noting that the team totals peg the Colts to score at least 25 points despite Tennessee’s last four road games showing the Titans holding those opponents to 14, 20, 13 and 6 points.

NFL Week 11 Pick - Indianapolis -1.5

Fairway Jay is a professional handicapper based out of Las Vegas. He focuses primarily on the four majors along with college football and college basketball. You can follow him on Twitter @FairwayJay.