NFL Week 13 Free Picks - Where's The Value on Sunday?

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D.S. Williamson

November 30th, 2018

While Sunday afternoon’s early slate of games doesn't provide a true marquee matchup, there’s plenty for NFL fans to like. The Bears head to the Giants with starting quarterback Mitch Trubisky likely holding a clipboard. The Giants have been hot against the spread making the game a handicapping challenge in NFL Week 13 free picks. To be honest, this entire schedule is filled with landmine lines.

Another NFC North squad, the Detroit Lions, host the 1-loss Rams in a game that handicappers have decided should end in a blowout. LAR’s a massive -10 favorite even though they travel to Ford Field for this one. What’s crazy is that the Rams aren’t even the biggest favorites against the spread in Week 13.

That honor falls to the Kansas City Chiefs. KC’s a -15 chalk against Oakland in one of the most heated rivalry matchups in the league. Chiefs-Raiders often brings out the best in both franchises. However, the oddsmakers set a massive line and even the sharps seem intent on laying the points, so that says all you need to know about the state of this once, great rivalry.

The final, truly interesting matchup has the improving Cleveland Browns traveling to the Longhorn State to battle the Houston Texans. The Browns are big dogs because the Texans just won their eighth straight versus Tennessee this past Monday night (also, because they're the Browns).

Check out my breakdowns for what's going to be a barnstorming weekend in my NFL Week 13 free picks!

Sunday, Dec. 2

Chicago Bears -4 at New York Giants

Even with Trubisky likely out, the Bears have garnered plenty of backers at the -4 spread. Chicago has a tendency to play down to their competition though. The Bears are also 1-4 ATS in their last 5 on the road versus a team with a losing home record and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 in Week 13 while the Giants are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 versus a team with a winning road record. I’m taking the points.

NFL Week 13 Free Picks: Giants +4

L.A. Rams -10 at Detroit Lions

It’s surprising to me how willing people seem to be to side with the Rams. Yes, they're coming off a big win against Kansas City, but they've underperformed against the line all year long. Trends say the Lions cover:  the Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 versus the NFC, 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 following an ATS loss and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 4 overall. The points are just too many based on those trends. I’ll go with the Lions.

NFL Week 13 Picks: Lions +10

Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons -1.5

Ignore the fact that Atlanta has home field advantage here because it doesn't mean more than Baltimore bringing their top-rated defense to the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Only the Ravens offer positive trends: 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous, and 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 on grass. Baltimore gets the nod.

NFL Week 13 Free Picks: Ravens +1.5

Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers -14

Arizona’s horrible, but the Packers haven’t been playing well. Green Bay’s only 4-6-1 ATS while going 2-2-1 ATS in their last 5. Not only that, but Minnesota pretty much ended Green Bay’s chances of making the post-season. The Packers could very well lack motivation here. I don't trust Arizona all that much, but I trust Green Bay even less.

NFL Week 13 Free Picks: Cardinals +14

Carolina Panthers -3.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Seattle handed the Panthers their third straight loss both SU and ATS in Week 12. Carolina bounces back in this, though, because in the head-to-head versus the Bucs, they rule against the spread. The Panthers are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 in Tampa. They’re also 8-3 ATS in the last 11 and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5. Carolina has also dominated this head-to-head, compiling an 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS record in the last 10 games against Tampa.

NFL Week 13 Free Picks: Panthers -3.5

Indianapolis Colts -4 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Leonard Fournette will miss this game after the Jaguars’ top skill player got into a fist fight in the loss to Buffalo last Sunday. Without Fournette, Jacksonville should have no shot of moving the football. Cody Kessler will also start at quarterback, meaning that this team's spiral in to a winter of discontent continues. The Colts are hot after winning their fifth straight. Although the Colts only pushed against the line in the 3-point win over Jacksonville a few weeks ago, I think they cover here. They're as hot as any team in the AFC right now.

NFL Week 13 Free Picks: Colts -4

Denver Broncos -5 at Cincinnati Bengals

Denver’s stepped it up after their bye, winning two in a row and covering in both. The Broncos have gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 while Cincinnati is 1-5 ATS in their last 6. The road team in this matchup is 7-1 ATS in the last 8. Denver should demolish Cincinnati, making this the best play of the day.

NFL Week 13 Free Picks: Broncos -5

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans -6

On paper, it’s hard to go against the Texans, who are scorching in the win column. But, Houston’s only 2-5 ATS in their last 7 at home and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 on field turf. The Browns are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 on the road versus a team with a winning home record.

NFL Week 13 Free Picks: Browns +6

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins -4

Buffalo’s used their second-ranked defense in yards allowed per to beat both the New York Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars in their last couple. The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home, though. Miami should step it up enough to win and cover.

NFL Week 13 Free Picks: Dolphins -4

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans -7.5

A key missed 4th and 1 led to Tennessee’s loss to Houston on Monday night. The Titans never recovered after that. Tennessee’s a better team than what it showed, going 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 at home and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 on grass.

NFL Week 13 Free Picks: Titans -7.5

Kansas City Chiefs -15 at Oakland Raiders

This is a ton of points, but unlike Cardinals at Packers, the line on the Chiefs is justified. KC’s 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 overall, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 versus the AFC, and 11-4 ATS in the last 15 in Oakland. Kansas City all the way. I'm not scared of this line at all.

NFL Week 13 Free Picks: Chiefs -15

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks -10

Based on trends, the Seahawks have a massive edge. Seattle is not only 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 13 and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 overall, but the 49ers are 2-10-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings with their biggest division rival. Seattle should cover the 10-point spread and use their home field to their advantage. This is just a tough place for a banged up San Francisco team to gain traction.

NFL Week 13 Free Picks: Seahawks -10