NFL Week 14 Betting - New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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Jay Ginsbach

December 8th, 2018

The Saints enter this NFL Week 14 divisional fray off a Thursday night loss at Dallas, 13-10. Drew Brees and the Saints’ explosive offense was kept off the field with just 23:07 minutes of possession time, and New Orleans was shut down by the Dallas defense with just 176 yards. Tampa Bay beat division rival Carolina last week 24-17 as a home underdog despite being out-gained by the Panthers 444-315. Cam Newton had four interceptions in defeat, and now the Bucs face a much more competent quarterback in Drew Brees and a Saints team that should bounce back in redemption for the 48-40 Week 1 loss to the Buccaneers.

New Orleans Saints (10-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-7) Sunday Dec. 9th – Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL - 1:00pm ET NFL Week 14 Betting Line: New Orleans -9 (55.0)

The Saints waltzed in to the Dallas game leading the league in scoring at 37.2 points per game, and now they face the Buccaneers deficient defense, which has been better statistically over their last four games.

The Bucs offense does lead the league with 442.7 yards per game, and QB Jameis Winston is now the regular starter and surprisingly has not turned the ball over in the last two games. That’s a big reason why the Bucs have won, but the Saints are still more explosive and can exploit a defense in multiple ways with balance on offense, especially in NFL Week 14 betting as a sizable road favorite.

Still, outside of facing the Bengals disastrous defense on the road, the Saints offense has registered just 339, 270 and 176 yards in their other three most recent road games. While those were against stronger defenses of Baltimore, Minnesota and Dallas, I still noitce that neither team is throwing the ball down the field as often or effectively in recent weeks, and this total is suggesting plenty of scoring like the first meeting in Week 1. The Bucs have allowed 17 or fewer points in three of their last four games, but the opposing offense’s stats suggest their should have been much more scoring.

Road favorites went just 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS last week, and if you didn’t learn your lesson, then at least lay off the Saints in this game, even in teasers.

Why not side with the Bucs instead? Jameis Winston is still a liability, especially against an elite defense. Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings at home against New Orleans, and also 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a home underdog. However, the Bucs defense is still deficient allowing 6.4 yards per play this season, second worst in the league, and also 6.4 over their last three games. Play the under with less scoring than expected.

NFL Week 14 Pick – UNDER 55.0

Fairway Jay is a professional handicapper based out of Las Vegas. He focuses primarily on the four majors along with college football and college basketball. You can follow him on Twitter @FairwayJay.