NFL Week 16 Betting Guide

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December 16th, 2019

The NFL regular season is coming to a close, but teams like the Rams and Titans still have plenty to play for. Los Angeles desperately needs to beat San Francisco to have any hope of securing the final NFC wild-card spot, while Tennessee needs to beat New Orleans - and get a little help from Tampa Bay - to win the AFC South.

We have odds and analysis for each of those games as well as the biggest Week 16 trends and storylines from around the National Football League.

Visit BetAmerica to wager on all NFL Week 16 action. 


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Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots

Both the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots clinched a playoff spot in Week 15. Now these division mates square off on Saturday in a battle for seeding.

The 11-3 Patriots currently own the projected No. 2 seed in the AFC, while the 10-4 Bills sit in the fifth spot.

Saturday’s showdown in New England will be the second meeting of the season between the Pats and Bills. In Week 4, the Patriots pulled out a close 16-10 victory, as the New England defense picked off quarterback Josh Allen three times, held the Buffalo QB to a 46.4 completion percentage and blocked a punt for a touchdown.
Tom Brady didn’t have the best showing against Buffalo, either. He connected on just 18-of-39 passes for 150 yards and chucked up one interception. The Pats’ only score on offense came on a four-yard run by Brandon Bolden in the first quarter.

The Patriots offense has struggled against stiffer competition all season, and it didn’t look much better in Sunday’s 34-13 win against the 1-13 Bengals. Defense again carried New England, as the unit forced Andy Dalton into four interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown.

On Sunday Night Football, the Bills edged past the 8-6 Steelers in a 17-10 nail-biter in Pittsburgh. Allen tossed a pair of TDs and one interception, while Buffalo picked off Steelers third-stringer Devlin Hodges four times and stuffed the Pittsburgh ground game.

The Patriots are favored by six points at home against Buffalo but are 1-5 against the spread in the last six games versus teams with a winning record. The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six against the AFC East and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. The upstate New York team is also 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings in New England.

Bet on Bills vs. Patriots here.

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Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers

In an unexpected turn on Sunday, the San Francisco 49ers fell to the 5-9 Atlanta Falcons, 29-22, inside Levi’s Stadium.

Despite outgaining the Falcons by 100 yards, the 49ers fumbled the ball four times, and Falcons QB Matt Ryan gashed the defense in the closing minutes. With just two seconds left, Julio Jones caught a pass in the end zone to put Atlanta up by one, and Olamide Zaccheaus returned a fumble as time expired to pad the Falcons’ score.
The loss dropped San Francisco down to the projected fifth seed in the playoffs and moved Seattle into the top seed. The Niners need a win on Saturday against NFC West foe Los Angeles to potentially regain the top seed.

The Rams are barely hanging on to their own playoff hopes and floundered in Dallas on Sunday in a 44-21 defeat. Los Angeles only rushed for 22 yards, compared to Dallas’ 263, and its defense surrendered 212 yards and two scores through the air.

San Francisco already beat the Rams 20-7 in Week 6, and head in as a 6.5-point home favorite. Rams signal-caller Jared Goff accumulated just 78 passing yards in the previous meeting, as the Niners dominated time of possession (38:52) and capitalized on turnovers.

The 49ers are 5-1 against the spread when playing teams with a winning record, and the Rams are 2-6 ATS in the last eight games against San Francisco.

Bet on Rams vs. 49ers here.

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New Orleans Saints vs. Tennessee Titans

The Houston Texans bested the Titans in a 24-21 thriller on Sunday to stay in first place in the AFC South.

The Titans suffered their sixth loss of the season and second since Ryan Tannehill took over as starting quarterback but still boast a 43% chance of making the postseason.

In Sunday’s defeat, Tannehill produced 279 yards through the air, three total touchdowns and one interception that led to a Texans score in the first quarter. Running back Derrick Henry also snapped his streak of 100-yard rushing games and endured his lowest yards-per-carry average (4.1) since Week 7.
The Titans get one more shot at the Texans in Week 17, but first they must stand their ground against the 10-3 Saints.

New Orleans is coming off a crushing 48-46 defeat at home against San Francisco and will host the 6-7 Colts on Monday Night Football in Week 15. The Saints grasp the projected third seed and could still earn the No. 1 or No. 2 seed by the end of the season if they win out.

In the past three games, the Saints and Titans have averaged 35.3 and 31.3 points, respectively. However, Tennessee’s defense has held opponents to 20.6 points in that span, while the Saints have given up an average of 32.3 points

Bet on Saints vs. Titans here.

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Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The race for the NFC East comes down to Sunday’s clash in Lincoln Financial Field.

The Eagles and Cowboys, both 7-7, sit atop the division standings, with Dallas owning the tiebreaker because of its 37-10 win against Philly in Week 7. The Eagles can flip the script Sunday if they can pay back the Cowboys at home.

Philly recently broke a three-game losing streak by defeating the 3-11 Giants 23-17 in overtime and came from behind to secure a 37-27 road victory over the 3-11 Redskins on Sunday. The Cowboys, meanwhile, snapped their own three-game losing streak with a 44-21 win against the Rams in Week 15.
Both franchises have experienced plenty of issues in 2019, but Dallas’ season is far more confounding. The Cowboys rank first in offense and seventh in defense but hadn’t beaten a team above .500 until Sunday’s triumph over Los Angeles.

The Eagles are third against the run (90.4 opponent yards per game), 17th against the pass, and feature an average offense.

The Cowboys are slight 2.5-point road favorites on Sunday. Dallas is 4-0 against the spread in the last four meetings against the Eagles and 6-1 ATS in the last seven matchups in Philadelphia. The road team is also 11-5 ATS in the last 16 games between these two teams, and the favorite is 7-1 ATS in the past eight.

Bet on Cowboys vs. Eagles here.

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Chicago Bears

Sunday, December 22, 8:20 p.m. ET | Soldier Field

The 7-7 Chicago Bears were officially eliminated from the postseason with Sunday’s 21-13 loss at Green Bay. Chicago trailed by as much as 21-3 in the third quarter, though a late surge almost led to a Bears comeback in the final minutes.

Quarterback Mitch Trubisky tallied 334 passing yards, one touchdown and two interceptions, while the ground game piled on 96 yards. The Packers, on the other hand, put up 303 yards of offense and three scores on Chicago’s eighth-ranked defense.
The Bears next confront a potent Kansas City team eyeing the No. 2 seed in the AFC. On Sunday, the 10-4 Chiefs demolished the Broncos 23-3, as Patrick Mahomes completed 27-of-34 passes for 340 yards and a pair of TDs to receiver Tyreek Hill. Kansas City’s D also excelled in flustering new Broncos quarterback Drew Lock, and held Denver’s rushing attack to just 52 yards.

The Bears are five-point home underdogs on Sunday night and are 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games overall. The Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games and 4-1 in their last five as the favorite.

Bet on Chiefs vs. Bears here.

Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings

Monday, December 23, 8:15 p.m. ET | U.S. Bank Stadium

The Green Bay Packers clinched a playoff berth in Sunday’s 21-13 home victory and 200th all-time meeting with division opponent Chicago.

The Packers amassed 292 yards of offense, compared to Chicago’s 415, and nearly allowed the Bears to lateral their way to the end zone on a comeback attempt in the final seconds.

Green Bay won’t be as lucky if it performs the same against Minnesota on Monday night. The 10-4 Vikings breezed past the Chargers, 39-10, in Week 15, as Minnesota’s run game racked up 137 yards and the defense forced Los Angeles into seven turnovers.

Unfortunately for Minnesota, star running back Dalvin Cook injured his shoulder on the opening drive of the third quarter and did not return. His status going forward is unknown. Undrafted free agent Mike Boone stepped in for 56 rushing yards and two touchdowns in the second half, but Cook’s potential absence against Green Bay could spell doom.

In the Vikings’ 21-16 defeat to Green Bay in Week 2, Cook ran for 154 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries. He or Boone will need to pound through the Green Bay defense once again, and Cousins must do better than his previous 230-yard, two-interception outing.

Even more concerning, Cousins is a career 0-8 on Monday Night Football, the worst record in NFL history.

Still, the Packers head in as four-point underdogs and are 2-6 against the spread in their last eight Monday games. The Packers are also 1-4 ATS in their previous five in Minnesota, and the home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Bet on Packers vs. Vikings here.

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NFL Betting Trends

  • Home favorites have won just 63% of their games SU in 2019. By contrast, road favorites have won 66% of their games SU
  • Road teams have won 57% of their games ATS in 2019. Road dogs have fared even better, winning 59% of their games ATS in 2019
  • 52% of all non-overtime games have gone Under the projected point total in 2019
  • The Bills have been the NFL's most reliable teams against the spread in 2019, covering 69% of the time
  • The Bears (4-10-0) have covered just 29% of the time ATS in 2019, but have gone Under 64% of the time
  • The Bills are 6-0-1 ATS in 2019 when playing on the road
  • The Bucs are 0-4-1 ATS in 2019 when playing at home
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NFL Week 16 Schedule

Cancel all your plans. Seriously, you won't be going anywhere.

Texans vs. Buccaneers
Sat, December 21 @1PM
TB +2
Bills vs. Patriots
Sat, December 21 @4:30PM
NE -6
Rams vs. 49ers
Sat, December 15 @8:15PM
SF -6.5
Bengals vs. Dolphins
Sun, December 22 @1PM
MIA -1
Steelers vs. Jets
Sun, December 22 @1PM
NYJ +3
Giants vs. Redskins
Sun, December 22 @1PM
WAS -2.5
Panthers vs. Colts
Sun, December 22 @1PM
IND -6.5
Ravens vs. Browns
Sun, December 22 @1PM
CLE +10
Jaguars vs. Falcons
Sun, December 22 @1PM
ATL -7.5
Saints vs. Titans
Sun, December 22 @1PM
TEN +1
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Get to Know Kenyan Drake

Cardinals running back Kenyan Drake made history on Sunday by becoming just the fifth player in franchise history to record four rushing touchdowns in a single game. Here are three things you should know about the 25-year-old phenom:

  • Drake attended Hillgrove High School in Powder Springs, Georgia. The School has also produced NFL stars Bradley Chubb of the Denver Broncos and Evan Engram of the New York Giants.
  • Drake was a career back-up at Alabama, where he played behind Eddie Lacey, T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry throughout his four years with the Crimson Tide.
  • Drake is well known among his peers for his charitable work. The Cardinals RB has hosted numerous events for the Boys and Girls Club, as well as Smile Train, a nonprofit organization providing corrective surgery for children with cleft lips and palates.
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NFL Audibles

Eli Manning's Hall of Fame credentials are still up for debate, but there's no questioning how much he's meant to the city of New York over the course of his decorated career.

Derek Carr may have gotten booed off the field in Oakland, but he still had plenty of positive thoughts to share about the city's passionate fanbase.

Bengals head coach Zac Taylor was less than impressed with his wide receivers on Sunday, blaming them for Andy Dalton's four interceptions against the Patriots.
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Three and Out

Eli Manning likely made the final start of his career at MetLife Stadium on Sunday. Here are three of the more memorable quotes from his 16 seasons with the Giants:

  • "With the game on the line. I want the ball in my hands."
  • "I don't think in the past. I don't think in the future. You grasp the present."
  • "My idea is I shine, you shine. If I'm doing well and you're with me, you do well."

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