NFL Week 3 NFL Trends & Notes

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TwinSpires Staff

September 23rd, 2018

 by Fairway Jay
The Browns win! Now 1-35-1 in two recent years. Is that one of the NFL Week 3 trends worth wagering on? Quarterback Baker Mayfield looks like he’ll be one to watch, and even wager on as the Browns work their way back to respectability after reaching the very bottom of the barrel.

Trends don’t pay the rent and many are meaningless, especially team trends. The focus in handicapping football should be on fundamental match-ups and meaningful ATS systems and situations that matter and make sense. Sometimes the NFL doesn’t make sense, especially from a betting perspective, but picking straight up winners is quite difficult for many bettors and players in pools as well. Just ask those that had the Saints in survivor pools in Week 1.

Week 2 underdogs took the money going 11-5 ATS. But this week looks tougher to support more underdogs, but let’s take a look at some trends, stats and ATS situations and that might point you towards more winners inWeek 3 NFL trends.

Indianapolis at Philadelphia (-6.5) – Quarterback Carson Wentz returns to start for Eagles, and Philly is 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS at home with Wentz under center. Philadelphia head coach Doug Pederson is 9-0 ATS at home vs. opponent off a win.

Cincinnati at Carolina (-3) - Bengals off to a surprising 2-0 start led by a much improved run defense allowing 71 rushing YPG. Head coach Marvin Lewis is 18-3 ATS as non-conference dog. Week 3 NFL trends poiht towards Cincinnati regardless of Joe Mixon's absence.

New Orleans at Atlanta (-3) – In recent match-ups of these two NFC South rivals, Two UNDERs of less than 40 total points last year, and two OVERs in 2016 in a pair of shootouts of 70+ points. Saints are 10-4 ATS in last 14 as go  vs. Falcons, and Saints QB Brees is 22-12 ATS as division dog. Week 3 NFL Trends lean towards Saints.

Denver at Baltimore (-5) – Broncos 2-0 with strong running game, but road woes under poor head coach Vance Joseph, as Denver travels East for early start. Broncos are 1-9 SU/ATS on road last 1+ years beating only Indy last year without QB Andrew Luck.

NY Giants at Houston (-6) – A pair of winless teams (0-2), but Houston leads the league in rushing (157 YPG) and committing to the run with 30 rushes per game. NY Giants weak running (20/74) as they try to open holes for RB Sauon Barkley.   Week 3 NFL Trends point to Houston.

Oakland at Miami (-3) – Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill missed last season with injury. But following Miami’s 2-0 start this year, the Fish are 9-1 straight up in Tannehill’s last 10 starts. At home in September with a .500 or better record, Miami is 9-1 ATS playing with revenge (lost to OAK last year on this field).

Green Bay at Washington (+3) – Packers off 29-29 overtime tie last week at home vs. Vikings, and NFL away teams off a tie are 0-13 SU and 2-11 ATS last 30 years. That's an Week 3 NFL Trends that makes me lean towards Washington.

Buffalo at Minnesota (-16.5) – NFL non-division dogs of 16 or more points are 14-6 ATS since 2001. NFL favorites of 16.5 points or more are 52-3 SU but just 21-33 ATS.

San Francisco at Kansas City (-6.5) – Highest total of the season at 56, and Kansas City offense averaging more than 400 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play with QB Pat Mahomes tossing 10 touchdowns. But Chiefs defense allowing opponents to run 74 plays and allow league-worst 508 yards per game. Since 1989, totals of 56 points or more are 33-20 OVER.