NFL Week 4 Picks: Seahawks vs. Dolphins odds & predictions
The Seattle Seahawks are searching for their fourth straight victory to begin the 2020 season as they visit the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, Oct. 4.
Russell Wilson has been carrying this team on his shoulders through three weeks. His brilliant play has been a main contributor to Seattle’s hot start, which could be critical when the playoff chase heats up later in the season given how competitive the NFC West is.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins got into the win column in Week 3, thanks to a solid team effort against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Dolphins defense held Gardner Minshew in check, while Ryan Fitzpatrick had an efficient night for Miami.
That’s all history now, as the Seahawks and Dolphins clash in Week 4. Seattle is currently a 6-point favorite at BetAmerica.
Sun, October 4 2020, 5:00 PM
Russell Wilson is cooking up a feast of touchdowns
Russell Wilson has been spectacular early on, dishing out touchdown passes at an astonishing rate.
Entering Week 4, Wilson has thrown 14 touchdown passes to one interception. At 4.66 touchdown passes per game, that is simply not a sustainable rate over the entire season, but even if there is a regression, he should still surpass his single-season career high of 35, which he accomplished in 2018.
Two of Wilson’s favorite targets so far have been second-year wideout D.K. Metcalf and veteran receiver Tyler Lockett, who have combined for 556 yards receiving and seven of Wilson’s 14 passing touchdowns.
Miami’s pass defense didn’t give up much to Cam Newton and the Patriots in Week 1, and followed that up in Week 3 with a strong showing against Gardner Minshew and the Jaguars. Minshew threw for more than 270 yards, but most of that was in garbage time after the Dolphins had gained a significant lead.
The Dolphins were, however, picked apart by the air attack of the Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen in Week 2. The Seahawks boast one of the most explosive offenses in the league right now – with the best deep-ball passer in the NFL – and the matchup is a favorable one for Wilson and the visiting Seahawks.
Fitz-Magic time in Miami
After a rocky start to the season, including three interceptions in Week 1 against New England, Ryan Fitzpatrick has settled in as the Dolphins starting quarterback while mentoring first-round pick Tua Tagovailoa as he begins his professional career.
Fitzpatrick didn’t need any real magic against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 3. Sure, he only threw for 160 yards, but he had a completion rate of 90% to go along with two touchdown tosses and one rushing touchdown.
Tagovailoa has reportedly been ill this week, missing practice on Wednesday. Even if healthy, it would be difficult to see the Dolphins suddenly pivoting from Fitzpatrick to start against Seattle given his performance last week.
This matchup with the Seahawks has the potential for some fireworks.
Seattle’s defense has given up a league-worst 1,292 passing yards. One issue has been an inability to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks, who have had plenty of time to find open receivers. Unless the Seahawks are able to improve in this part of their defense, Fitzpatrick should be able to have a productive day throwing the ball.
Seahawks vs. Dolphins injury report
Jamal Adams’ status for Sunday is up in the air due to a groin injury. Adams has been dynamic on defense, playing a versatile role in the pass rush and in coverage. He did not participate in Wednesday’s practice. He hasn’t been ruled out, but it’s far from certain that he’ll play. Cornerback Quinton Dunbar also didn’t participate in Wednesday’s practice due to a knee injury.
For the Dolphins, there was good news on the injury report, specifically in the secondary. Cornerback Byron Jones didn’t practice Wednesday due to a groin injury, but was listed as a limited participant on Thursday. Fellow cornerback Xavien Howard (knee) was a full participant in Thursday’s practice.
Who will win Sunday's Week 4 clash between the Seahawks and Dolphins?
The Seahawks are 3-0 straight-up, 3-0 against the spread, and the Over is 3-0. When you throw five touchdown passes in a game, like Wilson has been doing, the Over is going to hit more often than not.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins are 1-2 straight-up, 2-1 against the spread, and the Over is 1-2.
With the way Seattle’s offense has been rolling, mixed with how much they’ve given up defensively through the air, the Over 54 is the right call for Sunday.
Score prediction: Seahawks 34, Dolphins 27
NFL Picks: Seahawks -6, Over 54