NFL Week 4 Sunday Night Showdown (BAL-PIT)

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TwinSpires Staff

September 28th, 2018

NFL Week 4 Sunday Night Showdown Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers -3.0 (51.5)

by Fairway Jay

A key AFC North showdown will be spotlight in Week 4 Sunday night, and should be another entertaining affair. After Thursday night’s offensive outburst and sensational quarterback play on both sides in the Rams 38-31 win over the Vikings, I anticipate more scoring against Sunday night at Heinz Field between Baltimore (2-1) and Pittsburgh (1-1-1).

Scoring is up to 46.7 points per game across the league following Thursday’s shootout in Los Angeles, where two of the top projected defenses couldn’t slow their opponent's attack. Linemakers have adjusted the totals in Week 4 Sunday including the night game showdown in Pittsburgh. Quarterbacks and skill players are taking advantage of rule changes, and absurd penalties (like roughing the passer). Big Ben and the Steelers offense is at its best at home, already scoring 37 against Kansas City in a Week 2 loss. That soft curtain defense is a real problem, and Flacco is going to air it out more than usual this week.

Pittsburgh scored at least 24 points in 7 home games last season including a 39-38 win over the Ravens. While Baltimore’s defense is allowing a league-low 273 yards per game this season, note that they were blitzed by the Bengals in Cincinnati in Week 2 losing 34-23. But Flacco threw 55 passes for 376 yards playing from behind, and surprisingly the Ravens are averaging a league-high 75 offensive plays per game and have converted every red zone trip into a touchdown. Pittsburgh is ranked third in the league at 73 plays per game.

The Steelers are on a short week following Monday’s 30-27 road win at Tampa Bay; Pittsburg’s third straight game over the total this season. While the Ravens defense and stats are solid and these two opponents are familiar, I still project more passing and the Steelers will try to speed it up and spread the Ravens defense. A number of situational and technical parameters point to more scoring in this match-up, and that’s the way I'm more than willing to play it up.

Week 4 Sunday Night Free Pick - Bet OVER 50.5