NFL Week 5 Sunday Night Betting (DAL-HOU)

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D.S. Williamson

October 4th, 2018

NFL Week 5 Sunday Night betting is a Longhorn State throwdown when the Dallas Cowboys travel to Houston to battle the Texans. Can Houston beat Dallas and cover the spread? Or, will Dallas claim Texas supremacy? Check out an analysis of the game along with a free ATS pick for Cowboys at Texans.

NFL WEEK 5 SUNDAY NIGHT BETTING Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans Sunday, October 7th – NRG Stadium – 8:20pm ET Odds: Texans -3 (45.5)

Cowboys Offense vs Texans Defense

Running back Ezekiel Elliott is on track for over 1,600 rushing yards this season. He’s run for 426 yards in 4 games. Even though Dak Prescott only averages 166.5 passing yards per, Elliott’s excelled.

Houston might put an eighth man in the box on the Cowboys’ first drive in the effort to contain Elliott. In theory, this should open up receivers for Dak Prescott. Once Houston reverts to a 7-man front, Dallas should adjust by opening rushing lanes for Elliott.

It's fair to say that Houston struggles against the pass, but it's equally fair to say that Dallas has been anemic in the passing game. So this game invariably comes down to Zeke and Houston's ability to stop him. The Texans have allowed 94.2 rushing yards per game, and faced 109 attempts. That's a 3.5 YPC allowed defensively that ranks 4th in the league which should technically tilt the action in Week 5 Sunday Night betting towards the Texans.

But Zeke is a monster and has become a reliable dual threat. He's already caught 15 passes and 1 touchdown, and his usage rate in the passing game has exploded given that he's already caught 15 catches for 125 yards. His prior two seasons averaged out to 29 catches for 316 yards. With a deficit of talent in the receiving game, Dallas is finding a way to unleash Zeke in a way we haven't seen before, and he's gifted enough to tilt the balance of favor in his team's direction.

Edge: Cowboys

Texans Offense vs Cowboys Defense

Houston finally got on track in Week 4 with a 3-point explosion against the Indianapolis Colts. Tough to see the Texans repeating that offensive performance against the Cowboys, though.

Dallas holds opponents to 19.2 points per game. The Cowboys effectively stop both the rush and the pass, allowing 207.8 yards through the air and 97.8 yards on the ground. The Cowboys have 14 sacks, which is the second most behind Chicago.

Edge:  Cowboys

NFL Week 5 Sunday Night Betting Trends
  • Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games versus a team with a losing home record
  • Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in October
  • Cowboys are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 5
  • Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October
  • Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games
  • Texans are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games in Week 5
NFL Week 5 Sunday Night Betting Analysis and ATS Prediction

More NFL handicappers favor the Texans at -3, but Dallas wins the matchup on both sides of the ball. Cowboys should stop Houston from having much success both rushing and passing while Dallas will move the football.

Prescott got into a rhythm against the Lions in Week 4, completing 17-of-27 for 255 yards and 2 touchdowns. He should keep it going against the Texans because Houston allows 288 passing yards per. The Texans must pick their poison here, do they stop Elliott or do they stop Prescott? The Cowboys are more resilient than people are willing to give them credit for, and it's too difficult for me to trust Houston given their -3.0 point differential over four games this season.

Week 5 Sunday Night Betting Free Pick: Cowboys +3