NFL Week 6 Late Games Preview and Picks

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TwinSpires Staff

October 13th, 2018

Following Sunday’s nine early games this coming weekend, three games will have the betting public’s interest prior to the Sunday night prime time showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots. Here’s a betting preview of those three NFL Week 6 late games with two inter-conference matchups highlighted by the undefeated LA Rams visiting the Mile High to tackle the Denver Broncos.

LA Rams at Denver Broncos (+7) – What a line and rare big home ‘Dog role for Denver. But I’ve been bashing GM John Elway’s choice of head coach Vance Joseph since the start of last season, and Broncos fans can’t be happy with last year’s 5 win season or this year’s 2-3 start with Denver entering this game on a 3-game losing streak going 0-3 ATS and getting out-gained in all three games. The once dominant Denver defense or most recent seasons has been sent to the farm, where the bucking Broncos have gotten fat instead of firm and are allowing 5.2 yards per rush to rank No. 30 in the league, and 5.9 YPR during its 3-game losing streak. Enter Rams RB Todd Gurley, easily one of the best players in the league and a reason to stay glued to your television screens for the NFL Week 6 late games.

Denver has allowed 34, 27 and 27 points in its last three games including last week’s lopsided loss to the Jets and its rookie quarterback, 34-16. Now Denver tries to slow Los Angels and the Rams No. 1 offense averaging 468 yards per game including more than 515 the past three games. To the Broncos credit, they do run the ball effectively at a league-best 5.6 yards per rush. They should do it more, and likely will as the Rams defense allows 5.0 yards per rush. Denver also goes against a Rams defense without CB Aquib Talib, who has missed the last two games and the Rams pass defense has suffered.

Still, both teams have strong sets of wide receivers, and both Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp are both expected to play this week for the Rams after leaving last week’s game with concussions. Denver has been outscored by an average of 6.2 points per game while the Rams have outscored their opponents by an average of 15.0 points per game. Those scoring stats, along with other technical situations (patterns) put the ATS percentages on the Broncos side. Unfortunately, I’m not riding this Denver horse this week with its poor jockey/coach, nor will we lay an inflated price on the juggernaut Rams. I liked the over, but with SNOW now scheduled for Denver Sunday morning along with freezing temperatures Sunday (in October!), we’ll have to pass for now as well. More first half running the ball sets up our play.

NFL Week 6 Late Games Free Pick - Bet in-game and first half UNDER 26

Jacksonville Jaguars at Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) – The Cowboys (2-3) are going to struggle to move the ball or score against the Jaguars No. 1 defense allowing just 292 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play. But Dallas defense is also top-8 in yards against and yards per play, but the Cowboys offense is near the bottom of the league averaging 307 yards per game. The Jaguars (3-2) offense has come to life the last two games with more than 500 total yards each contest. That includes in last week’s 30-14 loss at Kansas City when the Jags also racked up 29 first downs but couldn’t overcome QB Blake Bortles 4 interceptions. Now Bortles and the Jags face a much tougher defense in their second straight road game. Dallas averages 5.2 yards per rush, and the Jags minor weakness in stats is its run defense. Plenty of Ezekiel Elliott carries this week after his season low 54 yards rushing in last week’s 19-16 OT loss at Houston. The posted total is the lowest of the week at 41, but that’s still the way we’ll play it.

NFL Week 6 Late Games Free Pick - UNDER 41

Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (+3) - Here’s a game that got our wagering interest early and you can still get the Titans as a FG underdog. Both teams are 3-2 and the Ravens play their 3rd straight road game following a pair of grueling division duels. A 26-14 Sunday night prime time win at Pittsburgh was followed by last week’s 12-9 OT loss at Cleveland. Historically, a team playing its 3rd straight road game is a 57% ATS play against. The Titans loss last week at Buffalo cost many public bettors and teasers, but this is the week to ‘tease’ Tennessee and play their tune in Nashville. Titans OT Taylor Lewan has practiced in full the last two days and will play Sunday, as will QB Marcus Mariota. The Titans run the ball 29 times per game, which is good, but just 3.7 YPR, which is not. The Ravens running game is worse at 3.2 yards per rush. The Ravens have played in rain twice this season, and it looks like a third time this week. The Titans games have been affected by adverse weather and conditions more than any other team this season, so improved scoring is expected. But not this week, as points may be tough to get again and the total will drop from current 42 as rain is likely in Nashville along with winds to 15 MPH. ‘Dog and UNDER parlay is a play.

NFL Week 6 Late Games Free Pick - Tennessee Titans +3.0 (UNDER)