NFL Week 6 Opening Lines - 4 Games Worth Tracking

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TwinSpires Staff

October 9th, 2018

Week 5 produced some more surprises, as the Arizona Cardinals picked up their first victory of the season, and the Buffalo Bills won on a last second field goal 13-12 to kill all the steam bettors that bet the Titans -6 and included Tennessee in their teaser bets. Miami blew a 17-3 fourth quarter lead and then left Dolphins betting backers shaking their head in disbelief as +6 was no good with two defensive touchdowns gift wrapping a 27-17 Cincinnati win. That Miami result has the biggest impact on the Week 6 opening lines, as Chicago is field goal favorite. Here are four games of interest on the NFL Week 6 betting board.

Chicago Bears (-3) at Miami Dolphins

Prior to Sunday’s Week 5 results, the look ahead or advance line out of Las Vegas showed Miami as a 1-point favorite. Overreaction perhaps, but the Bears (3-1) do head south rested and ready off their bye and in first place in the most competitive division.  Miami (3-2) returns home following a pair of road losses but still tied with New England on top of the AFC East. Neither Carolina or Washington covered the spread last week following their bye week, and we lean Miami’s way with recent results affecting the early betting line.

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-10)

Despite Minnesota’s impressive road win at Philadelphia 23-21, the Week 6 opening line is down from the 11.5 advance line. That’s because Arizona earned its first win of the season at San Francisco, 28-18.

Perception is not reality, however, as the Cardinals gained just 220 yards at 4.5 yards per play. Arizona was dominated on the stat sheet with San Francisco gaining 447 yards on 92 offensive plays to just 49 for the Cardinals. But five 49ers turnovers including four from backup quarterback CJ Beathard gift wrapped the Cardinals win. Rookie QB Josh Rosen is going to get hurried, pressured and sacked more often by the Vikings fearsome front seven, and Minnesota will roll over Arizona with a double-digit victory.

This is one of the Week 6 opening lines that is likely to inflate as the days go by.

LA Chargers (-1.5) at Cleveland Browns

The Browns (2-2-1) remain a bit disrespected and are a home underdog for the second straight week after beating Baltimore in overtime, 12-9. Cleveland is playing with more confidence under rookie QB Baker Mayfield and its improving defense. The Browns have played five close contests with each game decided by 4 points or less. The Chargers travel East for an early start with a top-8 offense behind QB Philip Rivers, who torched the rival Raiders with more than 330 passing yards last week in a 26-10 win. Back on the Browns at home again.

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-3.5)

Four games have posted totals of at least 53 points on the opening line report, including Sunday night’s prime time showdown as Kansas City (5-0) travels to Foxboro to tackle the New England Patriots (3-2). This will be the biggest bet game of the season thus far, as QB Tom Brady looks to outrun early season MVP Patrick Mahomes.

This total of 59.5 is the highest in Week 6 opening lines, and the entire season, thus far. For good reason, as both teams can produce with the Chiefs leading the league in scoring (35 PPG) and rolling up more than 410 yards per game. Mahomes passed for 2 more TD’s last week while running for another, and he now has a league-high 14 touchdown passes. Tom Brady has 12 TD passes, and the Patriots went to the air often in last week’s 38-24 win over Indianapolis. The Chiefs are statistically the league’s worst team allowing 461 yards per game and near-worst 6.5 yards per play. But with many teams playing from behind against Kansas City, those stats are a bit skewed as they play softer coverage at times. The Patriots defense is below average this season allowing 366 YPG and 5.4 yards per play, which is slightly better than league average. Kansas City taking more than a field goal is the side of interest.

Fairway Jay is a professional handicapper based out of Las Vegas. He focuses primarily on the four majors along with college football and college basketball. You can follow him on Twitter @FairwayJay.