NFL Week 7 betting tips: James Conner will run wild against the Titans
We’re only a week away from Halloween but there is nothing to be afraid of in Week 7 of the NFL. Forget ghouls, ghosts, and goblins, all we’re worried about is rushes and receptions.
So, put down the werewolf mask and the zombie makeup and let’s concentrate on four prop bets that are going to make for a thriller of a weekend.
BOOM: James Conner (Over 63.5 rushing yards -110)
The Steelers and the Titans are both unbeaten this year and the clash between the two is set to be a gruelling battle between two high-scoring offences. The stage is set for a star – and in my book it’s the perfect platform for James Conner.
The Pittsburgh star has put up over 100 yards rushing in three of his last four games, and averaged 5.1 yards per attempt in Week 6 against the Browns. Benjamin Snell has threatened to eat into some of Conner’s work, but it hasn’t had too much of an impact yet as Conner has had at least 15 touches in his last four games.
James Robinson, Melvin Gordon, and Dalvin Cook put a combined 361 yards on the Titans through the first three weeks ,and although David Johnson and Derrick Henry dipped under 60 yards in their last two games, the Titans defence still ranks 26th in the league against the rush.
All signs point to a productive outing for James Conner.
BUST: Will Fuller (Under 71.5 receiving yards -115)
It takes a brave man to bet against Will Fuller after he blew up last week with six catches for 123 yards. That was his third game this season where he has totalled more than 100 yards receiving, and if volume is king, give Fuller his crown. The Texans wide receiver has been targeted 26 times through the last three weeks as Deshaun Watson looks his way often.
However, here is why I’m backing him to bust. He’s going up against the Packers. Green Bay has only allowed two receivers to tally more than 60 yards against them this season – Adam Thielen in Week 1 and Olamide Zaccheaus in Week 4. Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Emmanuel Sanders, and many more have failed to top more than 60 yards against Green Bay in 2020.
This game may turn into a shootout and there is no doubt Fuller could see 10+ targets. However, the Packers have done reasonably well in shutting down receivers so far and this line could be just out of reach.
BOOM: Alvin Kamara (Over 6.5 receptions -130)
Kamara is going to have a HUGE game against Carolina, there is no doubt about it, the challenge for us is predicting whether it will be through the air or on the ground! I would not be surprised to see the Saints star top a total of 120+ yards against the Panthers, and a safe bet looks to be taking advantage of the line on receptions.
Heading into the bye week, Kamara had 10 targets against the Chargers and turned that into eight catches for 74 yards. In five games, Kamara has seen 45 targets and has an average of over seven catches per game.
The Panthers have given up plenty of yardage to pass-catching running backs so far this year, and with Kamara’s targets this should be an easy line to hit. He’s well rested after the bye week and ready to explode against a susceptible Carolina defence.
BUST: George Kittle (Under 5.5 receptions -120)
There won’t be many weeks where you are happy to back one of the league’s best tight ends to go BUST, but this is one of those weeks.
Kittle has been completely hit or miss in four games this season – racking up 183 yards against the Eagles and 109 yards against the Rams, yet getting less than 45 against the Dolphins and Cardinals. Against New England, I’m happy to be on the side on another quiet Kittle game.
The Patriots haven’t allowed more than three catches to any tight end this year – and they’ve already faced Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, and Mike Gesicki. Whatever Bill Belichick is doing against tight ends it sure is working. Expect him to slow down Kittle as much as possible, and while Jimmy G is going to be under pressure to throw, he may have to look elsewhere.