NFL Week 7 Monday Night Football Betting Preview

Profile Picture: TwinSpires Staff

TwinSpires Staff

October 21st, 2018

Falcons host Giants in NFL Week 7 Monday Night Football. NYG and Atlanta have both struggled this season. Falcons are at 2-4 while Giants are at 1-5. The home team believes it can still make the playoffs. Beating New York should help the cause, but even if the Falcons beat the Giants, will they cover the spread? Check out odds, analysis, and a free pick for NFL Week 7’s Monday Night matchup!

NFL WEEK 7 MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL BETTING New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons Monday, October 22nd – Mercedes-Benz Stadium – 8:15pm ET Odds: Atlanta -4 (54)

Giants Offense vs Falcons Defense Football betting tends to have a short term memory, and a lot of backers are putting a bit too much stock in the 13-33 shellacking the Giants suffered against the Eagles. This is fair to a certain degree. For the better part of the season, the Giants have been a horrifyingly flat offense despite the presence of surreal playmakers. But there have also been huge upticks in their statistical output at certain times.

New York hung 27 points on Houston in Week 3, and 31 on Carolina in Week 5. Skill players like Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham Jr. can excel in the right matchups. Barkley, because he’s a pass-catching running back, has the opportunity to explode under the Monday Night lights because Atlanta allows 121 rushing and close to 296 passing.

If the Giants lean on Barkley, that should open lanes for Manning to throw to Beckham Jr. New York’s good for 30 or more. Besides, Atlanta's defense is just straight up one of the worst in the league.

Edge: Giants

Falcons Offense vs Giants Defense A huge question heading into this season was whether Falcons’ offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian and Matt Ryan had gotten onto the same page. The answer’s “yes” because Atlanta averages 311 passing yards. Ryan’s playing at an MVP level (but will not be in the running), throwing for 14 touchdowns to only 2 interceptions, completing 69%, and passing for 1,956.

Falcons average 27.8 while Giants allow 27. Like NYG, Atlanta should score 30 or more.

Edge: Falcons

Week 7 Monday Night Football Analysis and ATS Prediction Heavy action on both sides has already led to massive point movements. Atlanta opened -5.5 favorites. They climbed to -6 favorites. Since then, Falcons have fallen back to -5.5, then to -5, then to -4.5, and finally down to -4. If the betting direction continues, Falcons could end up -3 by kickoff.

Hard to not look to trends after that kind of line movement. Sure enough, Atlanta has more cold trends than Giants. Falcons are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 in October, 1-6 ATS in their last 6 after an SU win, and 1-4 ATS versus a team with a losing record.

The only Giants’ cold trend is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. In the head-to-head, the road team is 9-3 against the spread in the last 12.

If Falcons had a bigger edge in some way, trends wouldn’t mean so much. Atlanta has no edge, which means trends mean a lot. Giants should cover. Sometimes when two teams with questionable defenses meet, it becomes an entertaining track meet. There are too many superstars in this game for it not to be fun. But there's no way that you can invest comfortable in Atlanta's defense, no matter how awful Eli Manning's been all season.

Week 7 Monday Night Football Betting Free Pick: Giants +4