NFL Week 9 Late Game Betting

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TwinSpires Staff

November 3rd, 2018

Three late afternoon games on Sunday feature teams pushing for the playoffs. The LA Rams (8-0) at New Orleans (6-1) is the marquee matchup of the week, but Houston (5-3) can remain on top of the AFC South with a win at Denver (3-5) while San Diego (5-2) at Seattle (4-3) is a midseason interconference clash with playoff implications for both sides. These are tough games to gauge, and even the oddsmakers are having trouble with the lines as all three matchups have virtually non-existent betting lines. So the NFL Week 9 late game betting totals might be where the value is for at least two of these games.

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos -1.0 – Total 46.0

Now that Hugh Jackson has been banished from Cleveland, GM John Elway might be more inclined to pull the plug on Vance Joseph, who would surely be dismissed by season's end if the Broncos lose on Sunday and are pushed further from the playoffs. The Broncos do one thing well, as they rush for 133.1 yards per game at a league-best 5.3 yards per rush. But the passing attack took a hit this week with the trade of WR Demaryius Thomas to these Texans, who already have elite WR DeAndre Hopkin, a more balanced offense and a better defense. Houston has turned around its season with 5-straight wins thanks to an improved effort from JJ Watt and company. A strong defensive front that's stiff upfront can slow what the Broncos do best, and Houston was able to grind down an equally strong Dallas rush attack to a halt.

Along with Joseph and his lack of leadership is appointing an inexperienced defensive coordinator that has taken the once dominant Denver defense to new lows. After coming up short against rival Kansas City again last week, dropping them to losses in 5 of their last 6 games, I won’t suggest playing Denver in a favorite role even at this near pick ‘em at home where they have played their best. Preferred play is the NFL Week 9 late game total and I expect this game to be a low scoring affair.

NFL Week 9 Late Game Betting Pick – Broncos/Texans UNDER

LA Chargers at Seattle Seahawks -1.0 – Total 48

The best home field in the NFL the past decade as been in Seattle with the 12th man. While the Seahawks defense is no longer dominant, Seattle is still strong at home going 44-11 SU with Russell Wilson at quarterback. That includes 17-4 SU when not favored by 7 or more points. Los Angeles did have its bye last week and the bolts have won 4-straight while scoring at least 20 points in every game this season. The only losses for the Chargers are to the best team in each conference, the Rams and Chiefs. Philip Rivers has a superb QB rating of 117.8 and the Chargers run the ball well with both Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler averaging better than 5.0 yards per rush. Grading the total is a tough call because we don't know when the Seahawks will show up offensively, and the Chargers are coming off a bye week.

NFL Week 9 Late Game Betting Pick – LA Chargers +1.0

LA Rams -1.0 at New Orleans Saints – Total 59.5

This line has bounced around all week with both teams slight favorites in the Game of the Week. Two top quarterbacks expected to lead a shootout with a super high total, but a playoff type environment would suggest a little less scoring than this inflated total. Rather than pick a winner in a tight matchup with quality quarterback play and agile running games, you may consider teasing whichever side is slight dog up to +7 or more. Again, both coaches and teams will recognize the importance of more ball control and possession in this contest, and the total is the preferred play.

NFL Week 9 Late Game Betting Pick – Saints/Rams UNDER 

Fairway Jay is a professional handicapper based out of Las Vegas. He focuses primarily on the four majors along with college football and college basketball. You can follow him on Twitter @FairwayJay.